The main tip of the day didn't shine and wasn't strong in the market after being tipped.
Takteek was poor on stable debut for James Owen, who normally does very well with newcomers to his yard. I'm sure over time he'll get it right with this horse, but they didn't do me any favours at Carlisle.
Radio Star was also very disappointing. She had been running quite well this year, and I was expecting a much better effort from her.
Precious Spartan made sure it wasn't a losing day, winning at Ripon in much harder fashion than it should have been. Given he is a two-time course winner, it looked like he'd never encountered the track. He was hard to keep straight and made a meal out of the win when it should've been more straightforward.
Road To Wembley 3/1 (1pt) – Ffos Las 2.15
The opening race at Ffos Las is an interesting one. To begin with, I think David Egan could be on the wrong AMO horse. The top weight looks to be in much better form and handles any juice in the ground, which looks likely. The fact that he has opted for Padesha on his stable debut for Kevin Philippart De Foy makes me think they know he's well handicapped. Despite this, it's not enough to put me off backing Road To Wembley.
Road To Wembley is still a maiden on the turf, which is slightly off-putting, but he has run respectably on the turf. His form this year looks solid, and I think you should ignore his final start, which came in an apprentice race. Prior to that, his two turf runs at Sandown and Doncaster were decent. He lost by a head at Doncaster and was third at Sandown, in arguably a better race.
He has run once on rain-softened ground, coming from a couple of years ago on heavy ground. The ground will not be that bad if the rain arrives, and I'd expect it to be more good to soft. Based on his pedigree, and being by Postponed, any ground with soft in the description should be ideal.
Condotti 5/1 (1pt) – Ffos Las 4.15
You cannot fault Hugo Palmer for his form this year; he has been getting winners on a lot of the big meetings in recent weeks/months. Since moving up to take charge of Michael Owen's stable in 2022, he has done very well when sending his runners to the south and wales, his record at Ffos Las in the last five years is at a 31% SR, which equals a +26.33 profit to £1 level stakes. His sole runner of the day at the Welsh track is Condotti, and I think he looks a solid bet.
This race won't be a walk in the park, as this is a three-year-old race and has some big yards turning up. However, Condotti came to Ffos Las last time out and ran a blinder to finish third of thirteen at odds of 18/1. The form of that race has been franked by the winner, who has run well off higher marks since. Also, the fourth-placed horse won a couple of days ago.
Hugo has been very good at improving his handicappers this year, so I don't think the progression will have finished yet with this lightly raced son of Soldier's Call. He has been operating at a 23% SR in the last fortnight, which is some going given Glorious Goodwood was last week. Hollie Doyle takes the ride and is also in tremendous form.
GambleAware