Tafsir war narrowly beat into second spot in a headbob, which saw four horses contesting the win.
Fair play to the winner, who looked beaten with a couple of furlongs to go, but he battled on to win it on the line. Tafsir travelled through the race like one of the best chances of being the winner, and didn't have any excuses apart from him lifting his head when the winner's head was coming down at the right time.
Kiss Me My Love 22/1 (0.5pt EW, 3pl) – Beverley 4.38
Beverley isn't expecting any further rain, but the ground is already soft and heavy in places, so the damage is already done. You're going to need a horse that handles this ground, as even though it will be drying out, it'll be tough work and will become tacky. There were a couple in this race who caught my attention before Kiss Me My Love, and that was Charming Fellow and Echo Of Glory.
Charming Fellow ran well last time out and has form on soft ground from last year, plus he gets the 5lb claimer on board, making life much easier for him off a low-ish weight. Echo Of Glory's handicap mark has started to drop to a mark which makes him interesting, but I'm not sure about his form, even though it looks quite good for the grade. Both of the horse's trainers have good records at this track, so it's no surprise that they are towards the top of the market.
Kiss Me My Love was worth backing at a much bigger price on a reduced handicap mark. He has to prove he stays this far, which is the only negative for backing this horse. However, he is a full-brother to a horse who stayed 10f, so that gives me optimism that it shouldn't be an issue. He ran okay on soft ground on her second start last year, but hasn't been seen on it since. Once again, the pedigree points towards him being fine on the surface. The form of his runs this year makes me think she is being massively overlooked. The form has come over sprint trips for the most part, but the second to Thunderous Love in a Class 5 race, losing by a neck, looks like the best form in the race. The winner is now 13lb higher in the handicap and was pushed very hard by Kiss Me My Love to get that win.
I think looking at horses who have proven form at the grade is the way to go. She ran in a Class 4 last time out over the mile for the first time, which wasn't a bad effort considering she was 50/1. She was only 3L behind the winner that day, so she should be much better suited against much weaker horses in today's race. Not only that, she is 4lb lower than when she was a neck second at Nottingham in June, making her well handicapped.
GambleAware