Binhareer ran out a very cosy winner up at Ayr, improving William Haggas' record at the track.
The drift in the morning did make me think we had little chance of getting the win. But, once again, it shows that market movements don't mean everything. Binhareer was tipped up at 5/2 and drifted out to 13/2, but still managed to win.
At times, it looked like we might not get a clear run-through. Oisin Orr knew he had plenty of horse underneath him, so he didn't panic. Once in the clear, he showed that he was well ahead of the handicapper and better than today's opposition.
Hopefully, some of you got on this morning at bigger odds, as 13/2 was a ridiculous price. Unfortunately, I didn't jump back on at bigger prices and obviously didn't get best odds guaranteed from the night before.
Imperial Quarter 15/2 (0.5pt EW, 3pl) – Pontefract 3.10
I think the most likely winner of this race is Soprano, and I think you can argue she is decent value at the prices. However, she is carrying a 3lb penalty, and fillies aren't always straightforward, so I will take a chance on one at a bigger price.
The top two in the market are the form horses, and Royal Dress would be interesting if she were to return to form. The rest of the field have something to prove, with Charlottes Web being better on the AW and the rest not being Class 1 fillies, bar Francophone, but her Class 1 form isn't great.
Imperial Quarter was the one which caught my attention. She had some strong form last year, but she struggles to be consistent. This year she hasn't been great on her two starts, but she has excuses for both. You can forgive her for the first run, as that was after an absence. Last time out, she was running over a longer trip, and on the fact that she didn't like it last year, she didn't look great over this term either.
Her form when being third in a Class 1 race at Sandown behind Tamfana looks great, and gives her a fighting chance of winning this. Obviously, the winner was and is a very good filly. The runner-up won a Listed race in France. Spiritual (3rd) has won a Group 3 this year. Bright Thunder (6th) won a Listed race in France on the weekend just gone. Choisya (7th) won a Group 1 in America last year, and Doom (last place) won a Listed race on her final start. In terms of form, it's very hard to knock and the only horse who wasn't franked it is my selection.
She is now a five-year-old, so she could be on the decline, but she is worth a chance with the form of the yard. Roger Varian has had eight winners in the last fortnight, and Ray Dawson is riding just as good. She is definitely an each-way player at the very least.
Roger Varian is 2/2 at Pontefract this year and 6/24 in the last five years, which is a very solid 25% strike rate. A further four horses have been placed in second or third, meaning he has close to a 42% strike rate of his horses winning or being placed.
GambleAware