Cairnzy messaged me yesterday and said he had a couple of fancies, so he took over for Monday's thread.
His main selection was a winner, tipped up at 7/4. The William Haggas long-distance runner made the worthwhile trip up to Ayr. He was backed into EVS and won by 0.75L, staying on well at the finish to beat Hornsea Bay. The form of that race might be worth following, as I know the owners of the runner-up think he is on a good handicap mark.
Cairnzy's other runner of the day came at the Galway Festival. Galway is always a minefield, and his selection in the amateur jockey's race was a very tough race to call. His selection was prominent, but he started to struggle with the pace/stamina when turning for home and went backwards quite quickly.
Noble Champion 11/2 (1pt EW, 4pl) – Goodwood 2.30
As I've mentioned on many times, when I've tipped up the three-year-old against the older horses, it doesn't work out for me. Despite that, I'm ignoring all the previous signs and I'm siding with Noble Champion in the first Group race of the Glorious Goodwood meeting.
It could be a big overreaction tipping Noble Champion after his emphatic win at Royal Ascot, but I think he is a serious horse. I think many tipsters will try to pick holes in the form and say he was flattered to win by the distance he won by at Ascot, but the form is working out. The runner-up ran well in the July Cup, and the third & fourth have won next time out. The fourth won a good York handicap, recording an RPR of 106. Furthermore, Seagulls Eleven (6th) ran a blinder to finish second in a Listed race, finishing behind a potential Godolphin Group 1 horse.
Ed Walker is starting to get the recognition he deserves. He has been going under the radar in the last five years, and that's even with having some very smart horses and big wins on his CV. This year, as shown at Royal Ascot, he has some very solid three-year-olds. Noble Champion showed an immense level of improvement at Ascot. With the weight-for-age allowance and further improvement, he is a very big player in this.
Easy Peeler 8/1 (0.5pt EW, 4pl) – Goodwood 5.30
There are definitely more appealing horses in this race than Easy Peeler. However, Goodwood is a track that John Quinn has been very good at over the years, so I think further improvement is likely from his runner.
John shares the training licence with his son Sean, and since they've joined forces, they haven't had a winner at this track. Don't let that put you off, as John had a 16% SR at Goodwood and a 50% win or place inside the top four, which is very good going. There are four places on offer in this race, which makes Easy Peeler statistically a solid each-way bet.
This yard knows their sprinters, and they wouldn't be wasting a horse if they were on a good handicap mark. She has won a race already this season and has since run well in defeat on her last two runs. Today, she is back against the fillies, which will make life much easier for her. It wouldn't surprise me if she runs a big race from good odds.
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