It's always painful when you get the value on a horse, and they get an awful ride.
Bad rides have been a recent theme for me over the last couple of weeks. Paul Mulrennan was the latest to add, but that isn't a surprise. The horse was backed into 11/8F from 11/4 when tipped up and was positioned in last place. Being held up isn't a problem, but when the jockey tries to find as much trouble as he possibly can, that's when it becomes annoying.
Phoenix of Dreams was horrendous. I feel for Jason Hart, who made the trip down to Windsor for the one ride.
Brazilian Belle 3/1 (1pt) – Musselburgh 4.00
Given that Brazilian Belle has a track record of being bad in the stalls and then held up, this track might not be ideal for her. However, if she gets a clear run, which is a hard task for my horses, she will be fighting out for the win.
I watched her race the time before last when she ran at Beverley. I had no money on the line in that race that day, but I thought she shaped very well and was the one to take out of it for the future. A week ago, she showed that with a clear run, she is a progressive horse. She was playing up in the stalls, but that didn't stop her from winning the race at Thirsk by 2L.
Because she is out seven days after her win, she has to carry a 6lb penalty. This isn't too much of a concern because Michael Dods knows how to handle progressive sprinters like this. He has done very well with similar types over the years, and mainly with fillies. I think she has a fair way to go before the handicapper catches up with her.
Elvetham 11/4 (1pt) – Musselburgh 5.30
It's probably a foolish decision to take on the odds-on favourite, but I'm doing it with a newcomer to the Michael Bell stable.
If you look at the favourites form, other than last time out when he finished second, his form has been attrocious. Who is to say that he can follow that run up with another good run? he is mightily short in the market, and the newcomer to the Michael Bell stable did catch my attention.
Michael Bell has a 28% strike rate when sending his runners to Musselburgh. He obtained this horse from Dermot Weld's yard a couple of weeks ago for 21,000gns. It's interesting that they are coming up to Musselburgh for their first race with him, as it's not exactly around the corner. The price for travel and other expenses will probably come close to the winning pot for this race, so they must be thinking they're in with a strong chance.
Jay Mackay takes the ride and takes off 5lbs from this lad's mark, which is already 53. He is winless from nine starts in Ireland, but has shown signs of ability, especially in a race like this.
GambleAware