Thursday’s Racing Tips – York Ebor Festival Day 2 tips

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It was nice to land a winner yesterday on day one of the Ebor York festival. The winner was short enough in the betting but City Of Troy got the job done with a beautiful front-running ride by Ryan Moore. 

My other selection Diablo Rojo ran with credit to finish sixth. He was prominent throughout his race and was bang there in the final few furlongs but when they entered the business end his challenge dwindled out and he fell away. Holkam Bay could have excuses for his poor showing, with him being on the wrong side of the track etc, but his run was far too bad to be pointing fingers on that. If I was to guess, maybe the race came a bit too soon for him after his monstrous performance at Ascot just a week ago. Get Shirty didn't run the race I was hoping for, and it saw the Irish dominate with a first and second for the raiders.

Cairnzy's Tips

Sea Just In Time SP – York 4.10

The horse I like here is Sea Just In Time and I'm disappointed to see she is as short as 6/4 in the market for this contest. I've a slight feeling she may drift a little and for that reason I'll advise going SP on this selection. If she shortens further from 6/4 then it is what it is, that's the risk you take in this game.

I mentioned above that I was surprised to see her open as short as 6/4, but I'm not at all shocked that she heads the betting market. I vividly remember watching her debut back in May at Newmarket and being thoroughly impressed by her performance that day. While the subsequent form of that race hasn't been too flattering, with only the runner-up Precious Jewel having won a race since. I firmly believe a horse can only beat what's in front of them and that's exactly what she did, winning with the minimum of fuss by four and a half lengths.

My selection was then sent of an odds on favourite in Listed company but flopped that day to finish just over 3L back in sixth place. I'm not totally sure what went wrong that day, and the only excuse I can really find is that she didn't handle the track as well as expected. Goodwood is one of those tracks and for what it's worth, the eventual winner Lava Stream went down by a neck to Port Fairy in the Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot and now has an OR of 107. Sea Just In Time returned to Kempton after a two month break and returned a winning favourite for punters when seeing of the challenge of the Gosden trained Beeley. I again was impressed with that effort given Sea Just In Time was carrying a 7lb penalty that day and Beeley is now rated in the high 80s. Trainer William Haggas has hit a purple patch this past few weeks and is operating at around a 33% SR with his runners.

Arizona Blaze 5/2 – York 2.25

Carrying top weight in this contest will be a tough enough task for my selection, however, I feel Arizona Blaze holds all the ammunation to put these lot to the sword.

My selection brings easily the best form to the table for this contest. His third behind Strikin Viking and Henri Matisse is a solid piece of form however it's his third-placed effort recently behind Whistlejacket and Babouche that stands out as rock solid form. Whistlejacket was turned over that day at odds on to the exciting prospect that is Babouche, however, Whistlejacket bounced back a few days ago when winning a Group 1 contest in Deauville and already had proven form at Group level when winning the Group 2 Kingdom Of Bahrain July Stakes at Newmarket. Arizona Blaze did well when he met that pair at the Curragh and only faded within the last furlong when the other two broke clear. Nothing else within this field really stood out to me as a danger and it'll take something special to turn over Arizona Blaze.

Rizzel's Tips

Heavens Gate 5/2 – York 1.50

You can expect two-year-olds to have a burst of improvement at any point during their first season, so you have to tread carefully when thinking a race isn't too strong, but based on what we've seen from the fillies in this race, I don't really rate them as a bunch. I thought that Heavens Gate could be far too good for this field, and that might sound boring and obvious because she hails from the Aidan O'Brien yard, but on paper, she isn't classed as a ‘banker'.

Leovanni has to carry a 3lb penalty for her win at Royal Ascot when she won the Queen Mary over 5f. The penalty makes life tougher for her, but she should be good enough to be going close in this race as I've already eluded to that I don't think this is a great renewal. The race she won at Royal Ascot doesn't appear to be a strong piece of form to follow. The fourth, her stablemate, Miss Lamai has since won in Ireland, but she beat a couple of future mid-class handicappers, but other than her and Truly Enchanting who simply didn't show up at Royal Ascot, the form looks shoddy. A couple of other horses in this like Betty Clover who was a close second behind Simmering last time out and Celandine who has Class 1 form offer a bit of substance, but I just believe that if Heavens Gate takes the bull by the horns and Ryan Moore goes from the front, this should be her race to lose.

Heavens Gate doesn't appear to be a superstar filly from Ballydoyle, but I don't think she needs to be to win this. She is clearly a very talented filly shown by her third at Royal Ascot over 6f in the Albany, which in turn, looks a lot stronger than the race Leovanni won. In that race, Heavens Gate looked to be outstayed by horses who simply stay further. She had a lot of the field in trouble with two furlongs to go, and when Wayne Lordan asked her to go and win her race she went a couple lengths clear. It was only until the final furlong that the horses in behind came and went past her, but in hindsight, the winner looks like a future star for Aidan and the runner-up has proven she stays 7f with ease, so the stiff 6f was more suited to her than Heavens Gate. I think that the 6f at York could prove ideal for my selection as it's more about speed, which she clearly has, and if they give her an uncontested lead, she will be a tough nut to crack on ground which is extremely quick.

Content 3/1 – York 3.35

The Yorkshire Oaks has been a happy hunting ground for the O'Brien stable in recent years, having three of the last four winners, and that's where I'll be going with my selection.

Content gets my vote for this Group 1 for the fillies and mares, and I think it's not a particularly strong Group 1. Quite a lot of the time in Class 1 fillies and mares races it looks quite weak, but that's simply because they aren't as good as the colts/geldings, and the ones which are very good normally take on the other sex. Content has been mightily unlucky on her two previous runs coming into today's race, and I think she deserves to get her win in the sun as she looks to be the best filly in this race, especially at the weights. She was positioned in last place in the Pretty Polly which was won by Bluestocking, with Emily Upjohn in second spot. Being positioned in last place was definitely not the place to be as Kieran Shoemark nearly stole the race on the front end. He went many lengths clear with a couple of furlongs to go and was only caught by Bluestocking in the last few years, so given that the place to be was towards the front, it was a mighty effort from Content who flashed home under Ryan Moore to finish 3rd, just over 4L behind the winner.

The Pretty Polly is run over 10f, and based on that performance it was evident that Content would be able to run over 12f, and that is what they decided with her on her next start. Things didn't go to plan in the Irish Oaks either, she was towards the rear again, was tracking the eventual winner You Got To Me, but didn't get the room when Ryan Moore wanted to put down his effort on Content. By that point, the winner had nicked a few lengths and was in top gear. Content then had to re-accelerate, which is far from ideal and not an ideal task, but when she did get rolling it was too late and they didn't have enough track to bridge the gap which was already there. With a clear run, I think Content wins that race by a length or so, so I have no doubts about the pair of them meeting again in today's race.

Queen Of The Pride is a runner who is fancied to go well today. She has been improving nicely this year and won at Haydock in emphatic style last time out. My question is, are the horses she finished ahead of last time out really top-class? I think not, but you can't be anything other than impressed by the visuals from the Haydock run. Emily Upjohn would give these horses a really good race if she were to turn up in her pomp, but the problem is when she is going to show it, as she is turning into a really inconsistent horse. She was ahead of Content in the Pretty Polly, but she had the position bias, and over today's trip I think Content should be able to beat her comfortably, as she looks a stronger stayer. The two older horses I've mentioned have to give away 9lbs to the 3-year-olds and that looks a tough ask, as on ratings, content is -1lb, but the weights make it fairly impossible to look past her.

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