After a good couple of days and plenty of near misses, today was a reality check.
I went for a couple of bigger-priced horses, and it didn't work out.
Fernando was backed in the market, as I expected. He looked to be going well from the front, but got swallowed up and went backwards very quickly.
Leap Day just wasn't at the races; he is a hard horse to win with, but didn't show anything like the form he has shown this season.
Hinchinbrooke 13/2 (0.5pt EW, 4pl) – Windsor 5.30
The Racing League hasn't been favourable for me so far this season, but I'm not going to shy away from it.
I understand why Shady Bay is the favourite for this race, as he is in great form and is probably still progressing. The problem with backing that horse is that his handicap mark has gone up a lot for his two wins, and both times he had a claimer on board, so his rise in the weights is amplified. I thought Hinchinbrooke was worth a shot for Jane Chapple-Hyam.
For whatever reason, he didn't run great on his handicap debut. That run came at Southwell, so I think you've got to give him the benefit of the doubt, as that track is not for every horse, and neither is the all-weather surface. If you focus on his two runs before that, the form of those runs gives him a real chance of winning this.
He was third in a good Class 2 maiden at Sandown. The winner ran well in the London Gold Cup the time before, and has since finished third and second in competitive races. The runner-up from that race managed to win a Class 3 and is now rated 85. In the race before, he finished third, 0.5L behind Meblesh, who is now rated 90 and has won two races since.
Nakaaha 7/2 (1pt) – Windsor 6.00
I could be getting roped into backing Nakaaha after an impressive win at Ffos Las last time out, but I thought the visuals she displayed that day were indicators of a very well handicapped horse.
Unfortunately, I tipped up the runner-up when Nakaaha gave Condotti a heavy defeat just over a week ago. I was very sweet on the chances of my runner that day, but Nakaaha looked like she was in a totally different league. In hindsight, it should not have been a shock, as the form of her win the time before looks very solid. She beat Earthwatch at Newbury, and since then, the runner-up had won comfortably in a handicap off a 2lb higher mark, which produced a performance +16 to his handicap mark at that time.
Last time out, Nakaaha cruised into contention after being in midfield, and when she got to the front, it was a matter of how far. David Egan didn't ask for too much of an effort, and eventually eased the filly down. She comes into this with a 6lb penalty, making her 4lb ahead of the handicapper. If she's not worse for wear for her win last time out, which I don't think she will be due to it being an easy win, she should be very competitive.
Parole d'Oro 9/2 (1pt) – Windsor 8.00
I didn't think I'd be tipping up Parole d'Oro over this trip after backing him at the Glorious Goodwood Festival, but I am.
The race comments for last time out suggested that he didn't get a clear run. I don't think that was the case. I think he didn't show his true level of ability that day, so on that basis, I am giving him one more chance.
Prior to his somewhat disappointing midfield finish at Goodwood, he had run well at Royal Ascot, where he didn't get a clear run. The form of that race has been boosted, as had the form of the Newmarket runner-up finish the time after. I believe those races weren't as competitive as this. He should find this level a little bit easier, and I do still believe this trip is fine for him, as he stays on strongly over a mile.
GambleAware