Wednesday was a blank day, with both horses running extremely badly.
Mrs Bagerran was up with the pace, but when she came under pressure, she went backwards quickly. After two good performances, that was a very poor effort and not what I was expecting.
Sleeping Satellite was never put in the race by Johnny Burke. He was anchored in the last three, which was at least 20L behind the leader for most of the race. He jumped a couple of hurdles like a rusty horse and never got involved.
Rhythm Master 8/1 (0.5pt EW, 2pl) – Hamilton 3.22
It's a shame there is only six runners in this race, as it reduces the each way places to just two. That makes it slightly more risky going for an outsider, but Rhythm Master is a consistent horse who will likely run his race.
I do think Rhythm Master can win this race; it all boils down to whether the Roger Varian horse is ahead of the handicapper off an official rating of 97. He won comfortably last time out over today's course and distance, but the form isn't anything special, so taking even money is a risk. I don't think this race is too strong, which makes me think a repeat performance by Rhythm Master will have him fighting for top two at the very minimum.
The top three in the weights all have something to prove. The Archie Watson and Ed Walker horses are very out of form, but if they were to miraculously return to form, they'd be big dangers. James Doyle hasn't made the trip to Hamilton for the ride on English Oak, so that was enough of a reason to believe he is still on a tough mark. James rode him at Royal Ascot when he was strongly supported in the race he won last year, but he was very bad a month ago. Theoryofeverything is a good horse, but is reliant on soft ground. His form on anything other than soft ground isn't at the same level, and that's something he won't be getting today. The bottom weight gets a big pull at the weights, but the form isn't the strongest.
Rhythm Master is a hard horse to win with. He was a solid juvenile many years ago, and showed some decent pieces of form later into his career when with James Horton. Since moving to Geoffrey Harker's yard, he hasn't won a race, but has hit the crossbar on several occasions. I tipped the winner of his last race at Musselburgh, and it's a fair assessment to say he was unlucky. He went for a run up the rail, but the winner closed the door and left him with very little room. If he got a gap, there is a strong case that he might have won, or gone very close. I think the stiff track, over a furlong less, might be better for him.
Hopefully, Sam James can stalk the pace and deliver him as late as possible. He seems to be his own enemy, so if he doesn't have to go for him early, he might be able to kid him into getting a win.
GambleAware