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Novello Lad managed to win at Pontefract, proving David Noonan was on the correct Midgley horse.
It was nice to see him win for me after he had beaten a previous selection, and lose by a head when previously tipped. The fast pace was key, as was the stiff finish. Luckily, he got the gaps when he needed them and ran on strongly to win quite cosily.
New York Minute needs a hurdle and three miles. That horse is a proper boat and lacks gears. Given he had done alright over shorter at Goodwood, he was seriously outpaced and one of the first off the bridle. He stuck to the task, but he had a lot of ground to make up.
Sword 7/2 (1pt) – Chepstow 6.00
I think the obvious selection for this race is definitely Sword. I don't think we'll get amazing odds for him, as he is the one to beat, but he might be better odds than he should be due to the top weight he has to carry.
The form of David O'Meara's horse makes him a very tough horse to beat, as long as the return to a mile suits. Based on his runs this season since moving to David's yard, the mile trip looks ideal for him. He is normally held up over 7f, and makes up a lot of ground, but never gets there in time. His run at Ascot the other week is the best form in this race by a distance. The winner, Two Tribes, has since gone on and won the Stewards' Cup at Glorious Goodwood, and did it in easy style. The runner-up at Ascot is Classic, and that horse has been in very good form over the last two months, and continues to run well in competitive races.
This is a much easier race than the one at Ascot, so I am not too fussed about the weight Sword has to carry. My main concern is Danny Tudhope, as I always seem to be on his horses when he gives poor rides.
Brian 7/1 (0.5pt EW, 3pl) – Chepstow 6.30
If there was a horse in this race who could blow them all away off their current handicap mark, it's Brian. The only question is whether the trip will suit, but also, what form is he in?
At Royal Ascot, Brian didn't run to the same level of his previous run. That leaves a bit of doubt in my head about his chances of winning, but it's not enough for me to not back him. I think when a horse runs out of form like Brian did, they are worth another chance. Prior to that, his run at Ascot in a Group 3 race was arguably a career-best performance. He finished in fourth that day, behind Big Mojo and a couple of other horses who were decent juveniles. The 6f appeared to be on the short side for him, as he was staying on at the finish, but ran out of track.
They are attempting 7f again despite it not working out the last three times he has run over this far. I think he is better on ground with soft in the description, but Thursday's ground doesn't look like it'll be rattling quick, so he should be fine. The last two times he has run outside of Class 1 company, he has won, which bodes well for today.
I just get the impression he is on a very dangerous handicap mark, especially against today's opposition, who we know plenty about.
Hornsea Bay 11/4 (1pt) – Chepstow 8.30
The Horse Watchers are definitely one of the best smaller-budget owners in the country. They do extremely well with their purchases, and I think Hornsea Bay is the next one who could turn into a smart handicapper.
This horse's name came up during Royal Ascot when Martin Dixon (owner of the syndicate) was involved on a morning show. He got asked for a horse to keep an eye out for, and he named it Hornsea Bay. Since then, he has run a couple of times, the first time being average, but last time out he was very good and ran to a better rating than what his handicap mark was at the time.
He finished second in a Class 4 race at Ayr, finishing behind a William Haggas horse (Cairnzy tipped), who was backed into EVS. That was a very solid effort, and as a result of that, he has gone up 3lbs. The handicapper's new rating doesn't take place for this race as it was only over a week ago, so he is effectively 3lb in.
The Racing League meetings are always competitive, but I get the impression this horse is the best handicapped in the race and does deserve his spot as the market favourite.
GambleAware