Buckna didn't do Cairnzy any favours as he jumped like a fridge over most of the obstacles at Newbury and that left him with no chance of winning, in what appeared to be very testing conditions up the long straight.
Rizzel's tips
Toss Of A Coin 10/3 – Exeter 1.55
I'm not sure why Harry Cobden hasn't been riding over the last couple of days and isn't riding on Thursday. It would be enough to put people off from back Paul Nicholls' horses when Harry isn't on board, or even a stable jockey, but Harry Skelton doing the steering isn't as rare as it looks. In the last five years, Harry has ridden six winners for Paul from 22 rides (27% SR), with a further nine either finishing second or third. Hopefully, he can do the job on Toss Of A Coin, who I think has a solid chance in this contest.
There are a fair few in this race who have a good chance if showing up in their best form, but it's a question as to whether they can repeat their best based on their recent form. I thought Toss Of A Coin was worth a shot from top weight after running a big race to finish second to a good horse at Uttoxeter on chase debut a few weeks ago. My selection finished a close second to a horse named Roccovango who is now 2/3 over fences and his sole defeat came at the hands of Guard Your Dreams who has run some good races in better quality chases than this, and Roccovango was arguably an unlucky loser that day as well, so in terms of form, I think Toss Of A Coin's run behind Roccovango is the best in this field.
Unfortunately, the handicapper has raised my selection by 2lbs, which does make life more difficult, as does him lumping around 12 stone, but with him being unexposed at the trip and over fences, I think there's more in the tank on his second run of the season, with fitness likely to be stronger for him this time.
Haut Folin 13/8 (2pt) – Ffos Las 2.07
A horse who probably got a tad unlucky last time around was Haut Folin as he did bump into a horse who was on a decent mark and that horse returned to form. With that recent run under Haut Folin's belt, I think he could be too good off this current handicap mark for the others in this field to keep up with him, especially based on his last run which only came just over a week ago.
The step up to the extended 3m 1f, combined with testing ground is going to be a help for my selection. It was his first run of the season last time out, but he was staying on at the finish, which is a good indicator that his fitness was already very good, and that his stamina was kicking it at the finish. He has run well over this trip and slightly further before, and he seems to enjoy a testing surface.
I don't expect to get a very good price as the jockey and trainer combination is deadly over fences, but I think he has a superb chance so I'll be backing him.
