With the UK racing taking a stand against the tax that the government are proposing, I also wanted to take a break.
Cairnzy filled in for the one Irish meeting on Wednesday. He opted for a Colin Keane ride in a big field handicap. Unfortunately, the horse didn't win, but he did run well and finished just a length behind the winner in a congested finish with many horses in contention for the win.
Calendar Girl 11/2 (1pt) – Doncaster
This is a total minefield of a race, and is a race I'd normally try and avoid due to the weights being all over the place and it not being a handicap. However, I really like backing Owen Burrows' horses, especially at Doncaster. His record at this track is very strong, and I do think his horse, Calendar Girl, has a nice chance at the foot of the weights.
I don't think she'll go unnoticed in the market as she is very lightly raced and people will latch on to Owen Burrows, who has a cracking strike rate with his juvenile horses. In the last five seasons, he has been operating at a 26% SR with his two-year-olds, and this season is no different, operating at a slightly lower 25%. His strike rate at Doncaster with all horses is 25% and that has recorded a profit of +15.52 to £1 level stakes. He has had three winners with juveniles at this track from fourteen efforts. Ten of the 14 have either won or been inside the top four.
Calendar Girl will need to improve to win this sales race, as there are some useful horses turning up. However, I think there is a chance that she could do that. She has shown ability in her two starts in her career. She won nicely on debut, and then ran well when carrying a penalty last time out at Epsom. The runner-up at Epsom has since won again, which is a positive sign.
She is by Advertise, who handled soft ground, so today's surface should be fine.
Danielle 5/2 (2pt) – Doncaster 3.00
Three-year-olds have won this race five years on the bounce, so I started off with the younger horses in this race. After going through plenty of replays, I couldn't convince myself that they are good enough to beat Danielle, who has the best form.
Consent was a recent selection of mine when she ran in France. She did get boxed in on her last race over slightly shorter, but I don't think that was enough to warrant her to be selected for today's race. Her pedigree doesn't scream that she will relish this trip, but she could be one of the pace angles, and in a race which looks to lack pace, she can hit the frame. Crepe Suzette put in a career best last time out. She has also been a selection of mine on a couple of occasions this year, finishing as runner-up twice on the times she has been tipped. Last time out was a cracking effort, but she continues to hit the frame, which isn't a great look.
Danielle put in a good effort in a Group 2 at Goodwood last time out. I didn't give her more of a chance in that race, but an improving younger horse narrowly beat her. The winner had to put in an RPR of 112 to beat Danielle that day, and I struggle to see how one of the three-year-olds could match that effort in this race, which made Danielle quite hard to beat. That form is definitely the best in this race, as you had solid form horses in behind her that day. Even her form from last year, when she finished second to Estrange, looks extremely good. The winner is a dark horse for the Arc in a months time, and the horses behind have franked the form as well.
She has shown a liking for ground which is soft, so today's surface will be perfect. John and Thady Gosden have a good record in this race, mainly with three-year-olds, so Crepe Suzette has to be respected, but Danielle looks to have a superb chance.
GambleAware