Thursday’s Racing Tips – Break the bookies hearts with Unbreak My Heart at Goodwood

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Glorious Goodwood hasn't been kind to us these past two days but there is plenty of time to turn it around. 

Aesterius started to motor home in the final furlong but had to play second fiddle to Big Mojo who won in the same colours as Big Evs in the same race last year. Henry Longfellow was disappointing in the feature race of the day at Goodwood. He was seemingly lit up by Sonny Liston who surprisingly went forward and pestered him for the lead throughout.

Kathmandu wasn't great on the front end and was convincingly beaten by some better fillies. However, Kieran Shoemark deserves an honourable mention of the worst ride of the day away on Wisper. The best horse in that race finished fifth due to a shocking ride. Rizzel mentioned in his write-up what was going to happen and it worked out to a tee. He said that Wisper would be held up, and would get a perfect opportunity to go down the outside for a clear run, that option was there but the jockey saw otherwise and went for a gap which wasn't there, and the horse finished pretty much on the bridle behind those ahead of him.

Tomorrow marks the start of a new month and although July was a tough month, it's all about long-term profit in this game. Hopefully August will be kinder to us and fingers crossed for a better month ahead. Profit and loss will posted every Sunday as usual, unless it's the end of the month which we will then give a run down before starting fresh for the next month.

-21.145pts for the month. 

Cairnzy's Tips

Unbreak My Heart 14/1 EW – Goodwood 4.45

This is a wide-open Class 3 affair, and with Bet365 offering 5 places, I felt going down the each-way route was the way to go when studying this race.

I liked quite a few of these horses at first glance, Cloud King and We Never Stop to name a couple but I finally decided on the Clive Cox-trained Unbreak My Heart who at 14/1 looks overpriced in my opinion. This race represents quite a significant drop in class for my selection as she's been contesting in much harder races than this since her seasonal reappearance in April.

She is a filly who relishes quick ground conditions, so you can easily forgive her run three weeks ago in the Group 3 Coral Charge at Sandown, as the soft ground conditions were clearly against in that race. It's the form of her run prior to the one just mentioned that sticks out as a solid piece of form to take into this race. My selection finished a length and a half back in fourth behind the well-regarded Adaay In Devon at Sandown in a Listed contest on good to soft ground. Adaay In Devon has proven at Listed level throughout this season, winning twice and placing twice, whilst also finishing second behind Jasour in the Group 3 Commonwealth Cup Trial Stakes at Ascot. Flora Of Bermuda who was runner-up when the pair met at Sandown has since won the Group 3 Summer Stakes, reversing the form with Adaay In Devon on that occasion. The form of the Sandown run doesn't finish there, as the third-placed Nighteyes from the inform David O'Meara yard has since won a Listed contest at Naas by a comfortable 3L. Unbreak My Heart is drawn nicely in this contest and racing of a mark of 95 in calmer waters on her favoured quick ground, she can run well at an attractive price of 14/1.

One Look 2/1 – Galway 3.55

For my second selection on Thursday I've gone back to Galway for a flutter and the P Twomey-trained One Look, looks a worthy favourite in my opinion, with a drop in class and a return to a softer surface making her the clear pick in this field.

My selection was unbeaten before suffering her first defeat in a Group 3 contest at Leopardstown in May. She was sent of as short as 6/4 for that Group 3 race, and finished a disappointing sixth in a small seven-runner field. However, the good to firm ground conditions that day may be a fair enough explanation for her below-par performance as she had only raced on soft ground prior to that race and looked a different animal when doing so.

It's hard to ignore her run on debut in the Goffs Million where she bolted up to win by 6L, beating a field of more experienced horses with the minimum of fuss. The form of her debut run doesn't read too badly either, with the second ( Cherry Blossom ) and third ( My Mate Alfie ) winning at Listed level recently. One Look was then sent to Cork in what can only be described as a free hit, as she was sent off a 1/20 favourite and won again with no concerns by 3L. At the prices Letherfly is interesting for Noel Meade and jockey Colin Keane, she did well to come off the pace and nick third place last time out, suggesting this step up in trip is well worth exploring.

Rizzel's Tips

Sparkling Plenty 7/2 – Goodwood 3.35

I have this race between three horses, two of the three-year-olds and one from the older generation. Sparkling Plenty is my selection, but I do fear Opera Singer and Emily Upjohn.

Other than the two other horses I've stated, none of the others really concern me as they would have to improve massively and all three of what I deem to be the strongest horses, will have to underperform. I just had a feeling that Sparkling Plenty was the one to be on in this race over Opera Singer as she is proven at this trip, and that's not to say that Opera Singer won't stay the trip, as I think she will, but Sparkling Plenty has some very good French form from the French Oaks, and that looks better than the UK form.

When reading Sparkling Plenty's form, it would appear that she likes soft ground, but that's not the case as the French ground readings for us UK punters is always wrong, and the times recorded for her success in the Oaks would suggest the ground was much quicker than the good-to-soft, as it was only 0.34s behind standard. The runner-up has since won a Group 2, and was a winning selection on the Lucky 15 thread, and did it in good style towards the end. Sparkling Plenty came from off the pace to win the French Oaks, staying powerfully down the outside, and I think she can go for something similar at Goodwood on ground which won't be a problem for her.

Opera Singer was beaten by Porta Fortuna at Royal Ascot, and beaten with ease. Though the winner has since won another Group 1 at Newmarket, the form of the English 1000 Guineas which is where they all started their season, doesn't seem to be that strong. I'm sure Ryan will try and go from the front like he did at Royal Ascot, as they will have no doubts over her stamina and she did battle hard from a long way from home at Ascot.

Emily Upjohn probably has the best form when finishing behind Bluestocking at the Curragh in a Group 1 last time out. She showed that she does have the pace to act at this trip, but today's ground is a lot quicker and the track has more emphasis on speed than the Curragh, so with her conceding weight to the 3-year-olds, I think she has a tough task.

Dreamrocker 2/1 – Epsom 7.00

I will be gobsmacked if Dreamrocker's progression has halted at this stage of her career off a mark of 75 as she looks to have plenty more to give.

It's going to be a fast and late finish for Dreamrocker if she is to win this race, as that's the way she is and on her last three starts it's been pretty much the same scenario, but she travelled much better last time out. She has been crying out for a step up in trip, and I'm not quite sure why connections have taken so long in putting her up in trip as she has been doing her best work at the finishing part of her races for the longest time. She was severely outpaced over 7f at York at the tail end of May, literally sitting 15L behind the leaders, and was under the cosh a long way from home. She somehow ran them down and finished 3rd and with an extra 100m or so, she'd have won. The time after at Goodwood was incredible that she even finished as runner-up as she was not in the screen until the last half furlong where she finished with a rattle and yet again ran out of track. Last time out at Ascot she travelled the best she had ever done, she was in the middle of the pack and was screaming for room which didn't come till very late on, and at that point, she had to accelerate again, but once she was in the clear, there was only ever going to be on winner.

She has only gone up 4lbs for that win at Ascot which came in a better quality of race, so this looks like a lovely place to get a second win on the bounce. The extra half-furlong is only ever going to suit her, and Epsom is expecting a few showers in the afternoon, so the ground might turn to good-to-soft, which will be ideal.

If she doesn't win this race, I'd be gobsmacked. As long as George Downing comes down the outside, and doesn't do a Kieran Shoemark, we should be fine.

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