The bad run continued with two losing selections on Wednesday.
Bust A Moon was very weak in the market. He went off at a price of 18/1, which was nearly three times bigger than the price he was advised at. They decided to keep him wide, and his overall performance looked very laboured. Maybe he is on a high enough mark, because that wasn't anywhere near the level I expected.
Royal Velvet was backed into 7/4F after being advised at 11/4. Unfortunately, she couldn't deliver the goods and get us a much-needed win. Cieran Fallon had to urge her along much sooner than the others in the race, but she did respond. However, it appears that she got to the front far too soon as she weakened very strongly in the final furlong.
Arnaz 13/2 (1pt EW, 5pl) – Newbury 5.00
Newbury offers a decent racecard, as far as Thursdays go. A lot of the races at Newbury are big field races, and look like very competitive races. My first selection of the thread does run in a big field and competitive race, but Arnaz has been knocking on the door for a while.
It's strange that Arnaz has only won one race in his career so far. He has put in some good performances, especially two this season, either side of the poor run at Ascot. His run at Haydock looked unlucky, and last time out he ran respectably again. I think it is a matter of time before he gets his head in front.
With the fantastic form that Ed Walker is in, today might be the day to jump back on Arnaz. I did tip him up at Ascot when he didn't show up, but Tom Marquand is back on today, and I value that as a positive. Tom was on board this horse at Haydock and Yarmouth, but wasn't on him for his lacklustre effort. It seems that Marquand has a good relationship with this horse.
Given how well he ran on his seasonal return at Haydock in a big field handicap, these types of races might be what he enjoys. He can bury himself in the pack and get a good pace to aim at. There are risks attached to this, but with a clear run, he will have a lunge late on.
East Hampton 18/1 (0.5pt EW, 4pl) – Leopardstown 6.20
From looking at the weather forecast for Leopardstown, it appears that they are expecting a deluge of rain. If the amount of rain falls that is expected, it could definitely put the cat amongst the pigeons.
Due to the forecast, I am going with an outsider who will appreciate the rain. East Hampton is being massively overlooked in today's contest, which isn't a total surprise. We have some big yards, and when Ryan Moore comes over to Ireland for one ride, it normally means he wins the race. However, trying to find value in this game is what it's all about, and I believe East Hampton offers this.
East Hampton has been a steady improver since making his debut. He gets on very well with soft ground, shown by his only two career wins being on soft and heavy ground. His win in handicap company in March on soft ground was a good return to action. He then went to the Curragh in a competitive handicap and acquitted himself well. He had to carry 10st 4lbs last time out and ran a blinder on ground which is too fast for him. Third place in that race was impressive, finishing behind two horses carrying much less weight.
Leopardstown will pose different problems for East Hampton. He is normally held up in his races, which isn't ideal around this place. But, if they go a good gallop, it could set it up for a closer.
GambleAware