When a horse drifts in the market we often fear the worse. However, it doesn't always mean your horse won't win and Cairnzy's runner on Wednesday was nearly an advocate of that. His horse drifted out to 12/1 from being tipped up at 2/1. He broke slowly from the gates, tried to make his winning run down the final straight but didn't have enough track to get to the winner, losing by a head. Gutting if any of you was on the 12/1.
Rizzel's tips
Nap Hand 6/4 (WilliamHill) – Huntingdon 12.12
When backing the combination of Nico De Boinville and Nicky Henderson they often don't bring back the win, so knowing that I'm going against one of their short-priced up horses, she'll end up beating my fancy. Jokes aside, I think Nap Hand is the one to beat in the race, in what appears to be labelled as a two horse race according to the market. On all known form, I think you could say it's between the two at the top of the market, with maybe Diskatek having a chance if bouncing back to form, and if that horse is in good form, then the 40/1 is far too big. However, you're only as good as your recent run and based on that, Nap Hand should be odds-on for this race.
I don't understand why the Henderson horse is vying for favouritism with the Alan King horse. She has an official rating of 125, but has not run close to that mark, so her mark is definitely inflated and I think connections also recognise that, hence why they're running in a maiden race than a handicap, as she would have no chance of winning a handicap off this type of mark. Nap Hand was/is a good horse on the flat. He is rated 86 at the moment in that sphere and has won three of his eight races, so clearly has plenty of speed and ability. He transferred that form to hurdles on his debut at Kempton on Boxing Day when finishing third of nine in a decent maiden race. The winner looks decent and the runner-up would have won next time out if he didn't fall when in the lead. Nap Hand wasn't given a hard time in that race at Kempton, being held up and given plenty of vision of his obstacles, and wasn't asked for 100% when he was still travelling nicely into the home straight and in with a chance of the win.
With natural progression and experience of jumping a hurdle in public, I struggle to see him beat today unless a horse who hasn't shown anything finds tonnes of improvement, or the Mel Rowley horse bounces back to form after two lacklustre performances.
Celtic Fortune 5/1 – Huntingdon 3.05
At this moment in time in the world of jumps racing I think you'll struggle to find better jockeys than the Bowen brothers, they are brilliant and will put in 100% for every race, which is something you need when backing horses in the week in Class 5 handicap chases like this. James Bowen is on board my fancy for this race, Celtic Fortune, and I think if he was on him last time out then he would have won, so given he has the aid of first time blinkers, I think now is the right time to catch him.
This race is an interesting race for the grade as many are trying a new trip and should appreciate it based on their breeding, but I am not sold on the majority of them, and I'm happy enough to go with a horse that I know will stay the trip. Celtic Fortune was unlucky that Hereford last time out as he hit the front within the final furlongs, but I think the horse is a bit of a menace and a thinker, because as soon as he hit the front he didn't go any further into the lead and gave the eventual winner a chance to come back at him. The front two were a fair few lengths clear of the third, and given the winner has won three of his last four races, shows he is in great form and on a decent handicap mark, which bodes well for Celtic Fortune.
My selection's handicap mark has gone up a few pounds as a result of the near miss, but James Bowen is in the saddle this time around and Neil Mulholland has opted for the blinkers to keep him focussed on the task in hand.
Brother Boris and Knocknagappagh were two horses I looked at for this, but I don't think the step up in trip will suit the former as he was running on fumes over shorter around a speedy track, whereas the latter is still a maiden at the age of nine. He has been trained by the likes of Gordon Elliott, so it makes you think if he can't get a horse to win, what makes you think his time is now when being as exposed as he is. He did run well last time out, and could've won if he didn't blunder the last, but given how little he had left after the incident, he might have been close to running on empty anyway.
Cerendipity 3/1 – Wetherby 1.30
This race all comes down to whether the older horses in the lineup retain a good amount of ability, as if they do, then they are mostly on decent handicap marks and will put up a big performance, but that's a big if. Instead of relying on a return to form, I've gone for Cerendipity who is very in and out of form but based on his last run at Haydock on his seasonal reappearance from a 60 day absence, I think he is the one to be on.
The Sue Smith stable hasn't been great to me so far this season, but since joining forces with Joel Parkinson she has managed to get a few more winners and the yard are starting to perform, with two winners in the last fortnight from eight runners. Her runner in this race has run well at this track on two occasions, grabbing a win over fences just over a year ago and finishing second over hurdles. He isn't on the best of handicap marks based on his performances throughout his career, but I thought his run last time out was a very good performance given the circumstances.
Last time out the winner got an easy lead and was unhassled, whereas Cerendipity was held up and given a tough ask when Nick Schofield asked his horse to chase the winner down. His jumping over the last couple of fences were his scruffiest, mainly due to him trying to make up ground before jumping, almost as if the jockey thought he had let the horse in front get too much of a lead, which is true. He stayed on after the last and grabbed second, but two miles isn't his trip, but he showed he is in good order as it was heavy at Haydock that day and he didn't look a tired horse at the finish.
