Wednesday was a fairly awful day for the racing tips.
The newcomer from the Adrian Keatley yard was slow out of the gates and didn't know enough first time out to get involved, making it a very wasted journey up to Hamilton for Jamie Spencer, who was there for the one ride.
The other runner on the day, Ayr Poet, was very one-paced and had every chance of winning, but was simply not good enough on the day.
Minnie Wildes 12/1 (0.5pt EW, 4pl) – Carlisle 7.20
It's a rare runner at Carlisle for Charlie Fellowes, who has sent fourteen runners up to this Northern-based track, which has yielded three winners, which is a 21% SR, so his sole runner at the track on Thursday is definitely worth a second look.
Callum Rodriguez has opted for two rides at Carlisle than the decision to ride at Ripon or Sandown where his main trainer, Ed Bethell has runners, and has instead decided to go to Carlisle for one ride for Ed, but also this ride for Charlie, which looks to have a solid enough chance with the storm that is meant to drop a serious amount of rain at Carlisle.
Minnie Wildes showed a very strong liking for heavy ground at Ffos Las on her debut last August when winning by 6L. She has shown the same level of ability in her two starts after that, running to a mark of around 79-82, but was very poor and ring rusty for the run on her first start back in April. She wasn't fancied for that race, going off at 20/1, so chances are that they were using it as a pipe opener and to kickstart her fitness journey for the season. She was meant to run at Hamilton yesterday, but was withdrawn due to the ground being too quick, but they will be happy to see a very wet weather forecast for Carlisle.
She's running off a mark of 76, which is 2lbs lower than last time out and gives her a chance of bouncing back to form. We know she handles the ground, but also she stays further, which will go hand-in-hand with today, as Carlisle will test the stamina, and we know she stays further, so there will be no problems with seeing the race out.
Padishakh 11/4 – Ripon 3.50
The second selection of today is Padishakh, who was a winning selection for the Lucky 15 thread a couple of weeks ago, and now makes a return to the main thread after being put up once or twice last year.
Padishakh was smashed in the betting all day before he managed to win at Nottingham; he was close to double-digit odds, but went off as the 11/8F and won. He didn't win with as much authority as you'd expect from a horse who was gambled in at the rate he was, but he got the job done.
He has gone up 3lbs in the handicap for that win at Nottingham, and is now tried over 10f, which he hasn't done before in the UK, but based on how he finishes his races over a mile, and his effort at this trip in Meydan, he should be fine.
Today's race is a tougher grade, but the majority of the horses aren't in great form, whereas we know Padishakh is in good form, but is still on a decent enough mark. He has been placed in Class 1 race when trained in France, so we know he has the class angle, and I think another big run is on the cards.
GambleAware