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It wasn’t to be for Asadjumeirah yesterday, though I remain convinced that there’s a handicap of that nature in him yet. Anyway, on we go with today. The St. Leger meeting is upon us, but I’m more interested in the all-weather meeting at Newcastle, where a far less valuable race than those taking place at Doncaster catches my eye.
| Fontwell - 14:30 |
Honneur D'ajonc |
11/2 |
Sydney Bay comes into today’s Class 6 contest having run well to take third over this trip at Thirsk last time out and is very much one to take seriously now back on the all-weather.,
Fourth (of 12) when last seen over course and distance back in August, the gelding came from well off the pace to go close that day, a repeat of which would surely see him take all the beating here, especially as this is a race that contains less depth.
No stranger to running well at Newcastle
The mount of Brandon Wilkie is familiar with success at this venue having won over course and distance not once but twice before, placing on a further two occasions too.
If we count only Class 6 races over C&D, then the five-year-old has a record of two wins and two places from six runs. From marks of 51 or less (now rated 47), he has two wins and that recent close-up fourth. That sort of form is not to be ignored if you ask me.
Top of the pile for both career-best and last-time-out speed figures, the gelding really does tick lots of boxes here, perhaps more than early odds of 9/2 suggest. For my money, he’s done enough to be the market leader ahead of a race like this, so getting on while he’s not is a value move.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day running profit is +£70.
How are you on +£70? I haven’t see a winner yet??
Unless I missed one of your tips ???
Probably means he’s stated off with a betting bank off £100 at the start of the week so come the end of the week it will be +30 then next week start going into negative status like the rest of us
Same have I missed one coz all lost from what I’ve seen
This is the 3rd tip you ve put up and none of your 1st 2 have won. How can you he 70 pound in profit
+£70 ?.
I’ve only seen 3 tips, alll lost.
Is Dianne abbot doing the stats ?
The NAP of the Day has been running since July 20th. We switched from publishing on a static page to publishing a new article each day three days ago.
Please see the link below to the static page, where you can find a full breakdown of the results, including all losses and wins.
Apologies for any confusion, any questions, feel free.
https://mrfixitstips.co.uk/daily-racing-nap/#:~:text=A%20nap%2C%20or%20%E2%80%9Cthe%20nap,talking%20about%20their%20best%20bet.
To add further context. If you look through the results using the link above, you’ll see that I’m not looking for easy winners, I’m not tipping strings of short-priced favourites and I’m not chasing a high strike rate. I’m looking to identify horses that based on a number of reasons look to be generously priced in the early betting, attempting to achieve a long-term profit.
So far, not including today’s runner, I’ve tipped 55 NAPS, £10 on each would have cost £550 and you’d have back £620, arriving at a profit of £70, with an overall ROI at this point of 12.72%.
I ve never seen the static page before as I’d imagine most of the people who come on here haven’t. I think if this is the case and your now posting tips each day now you should really be on minus 30 pound. I also see your going for decent prices but you really shouldn’t be claiming your 70 pound in front on level stakes when that’s really not the case for most of us on here. As for these people calling you a clown they should have a long hard look at themselves.
Who is this ?
Not chasing a high strike rate ? ? that fills people with confidence then . Ultimately we all lose so welcome aboard ?
You wouldn’t have seen that, which is why I clarified and provided a link to a page on the same website, where the NAPS were posted until Monday. It’s the same thing, simply delivered in a different way. Thanks for your feedback.
I’m being honest about the fact that in my opinion chasing a high strike rate will lead only to identifying short-priced favourites, many of which will lose anyway as that’s just variance, which will not lead to long-term profit. I’m not looking to predict winners, I don’t believe that such an approach will ever lead to long-term profit. Feel free to disagree. As I said above, I’m looking to identify horses that I believe, for a variety of different reasons, are being offered at bigger odds than they should be, thus obtaining perceived value, which is the best way to arrive at a profit in the long run. I’m not bothered about short-term variance. Again, this is merely my opinion, you may disagree. I’m happy to be honest about my approach as I don’t want to mislead anybody who wants something different. There’s no need for you to “lose” if you don’t like this. Simply don’t read the tips/write-ups. Thanks.
It’s this using points arguement again that I got banned from talking about.
This is worse when you appear from nowhere and quote stats readers here haven’t seen before your debut in Monday..
Be upfront, those stats are null and void as far as readers here are concerned.
It’s 4 tips/points 4 losses. -£40 if a tenner is your advised stake.
I wasn’t aware that I was appearing from nowhere to be honest. I wasn’t told that I would now be posting to different readers. Perhaps this is my error, but I have been writing the same from the first NAP that I was asked to post. Changing the publishing method wasn’t my choice and I didn’t realise that none of the readers here hadn’t seen the static page, I just did what was asked of me. Again, apologies for any confusion.
Given that quite clearly the readers here haven’t seen the previous NAPS, which as I say, I didn’t know was the case until now, I’m happy to agree that the P/L should start again, leaving us at -£30 (using £10 level stakes) after the first three NAPS posted here (first on Tuesday).
where did this appear from only seen a few tips in the last few weeks from this nap thing
days
I was previously posting my NAPS on a different part of the same site, a static page (link below) as I was asked to do, before being asked to switch to posting a new article here each day, instead of simply updating the static page with new information.
https://mrfixitstips.co.uk/daily-racing-nap/#:~:text=A%20nap%2C%20or%20%E2%80%9Cthe%20nap,talking%20about%20their%20best%20bet.
May be coincidence but there is a Bradley gibbs posting tips in the sporty trader and sportingpost websites with an almost identical bio to the one on here.
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If it’s one and the same he has posted one tip a day in sportingpost the last 3 days but not the same ones posted here by our Bradley ??
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Like I say may be a total coincidence but if it is the same Bradley are the tips here his nap of the day or the ones elsewhere. ❓❓❓❓
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Sportingpost bio
Bradley gibbs
Sports betting writer with more than 12 years worth of experience writing about several sports and gambling topics. Value bet finder looking for edges on football, horse racing, tennis and golf, all of which I have covered extensively as a writer. My work has featured on many websites, while I’ve also been published in The Racing & Football Outlook, a popular UK betting newspaper.
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Mr fixit bio
Bradley gibbs
Freelance sports and sports betting writer with more than a decade of experience writing a variety of betting articles, covering several sports and gambling topics.
Coincidence ❓❓
I’m a freelance betting writer, currently writing for multiple websites, so yes, I write for several websites. I cover several sports and yes, do cover racing for other outlets, though I look at different racing for different sites, never posting the same thoughts anywhere twice. I don’t do a NAP of the Day for any other site, only MrFixItsTips, so this is always my NAP. That doesn’t prevent me from forming other opinions on different races and writing articles elsewhere. As I say, I’m a freelance sports betting writer. Hope that’s clear.
Old Elvis lands the 1 – 2 combo. Back into moderation you go ??
????
You are aware that all forms of media are full of freelancers working for multiple outlets? I’ve explained very clearly and provided full context. Choose to understand that or don’t, that’s fine. I will continue to post my NAP, complete with a reasoned write-up each and every day until told to do otherwise by those responsible for managing this website. Read them, don’t read them, like them, hate them, it’s all fine. Thanks.
Fair enough Bradley.
Thanks for the reply.
Apologies for the unfortunate comments above by some, so call for foul language above
But you have to admit it’s not a good look as people here might think they are getting second hand tips if you post different horses elsewhere and quite stats that we are not party to.
Last I say on it or I’ll be banned again.
Best of luck
No need to apologise :)
Just to comment on your point, I haven’t duplicated articles anywhere, and as far as I’m aware, there’s nothing stopping me (or any other writer/tipster/content producer) from producing different content for different websites. Feel free to judge my NAPS in the long run, and also feel free to dismiss them early doors if you don’t like that I write for other sites too. You’re entitled to do exactly as you please.
Regarding quoting stats that you had no access to, as I have stated, I had no idea until this afternoon that changing the publishing method on the same website (which was not my decision, rather something I was told to do by a superior) would mean that you guys hadn’t seen the NAPS before. I feel that I have explained this clearly and have provided the stats via link to this very website. I wasn’t making false claims or trying to fool anyone, and I think from my replies, that really should be clear.
As also stated above, since I now know that you guys had not previously seen the NAPS on the static page, I am happy to restart the P/L from the first article that went live on this part of the site, which was on Tuesday. Three NAPS since then, three losers, arriving at -£30. That’s absolutely fine. I remain confident of providing a long-term profit to level stakes. Only time will tell if that turns out to be the case.
Any other questions, feel free to ask and I will continue to answer honestly. Thanks.
It’s 0/4
Lady Mendoza was Monday’s or was that before the switch over ?
That was indeed before the switchover. That was the last NAP posted on the static page, which we were updating daily instead of creating a new article each day as we are now doing.