Saturday’s Nap, advised each-way, certainly ran with credit, finishing fourth in a decent race, picking up a little bit of place money. Minor profit and we move on in search of greater returns.
| Fontwell - 15:4o |
Kingston Bresil |
22/1 (each-way) |
On Thursday, I like the look of one at a big price at Fontwell, where ahead of the 15:40 contest, a Class 5 handicap hurdle over two miles and three furlongs, Kingston Bresil may just be generously priced at early odds of 22/1. As was the case on Saturday, I’ll be playing this one each way.
Lightly raced and yet to really show a great deal, the five-year-old was last seen doing his best work late on over two miles at Plumpton, suggesting as if today’s step up in trip would suit, so don’t be too surprised if he makes his presence felt for a trainer who doesn’t exactly do poorly at Fontwell.
Small-time trainer, big-time record at Fontwell
Lawney Hill doesn’t run the biggest National Hunt operation, that’s clear to see, but while her runners are limited in number, she does do rather well at a few tracks, one of which is Fontwell.
Fontwell is the track where Hill has her best strike rate, winning with 18.70% of the runners that she’s sent to Sussex venue since 2012. She also has a win/place strike rate of 35%. In other words, for every three runners she has at Fontwell, a little over one wins or hits the frame. That’s not bad at all and is worth keeping in mind as far as I’m concerned.
As for the horse, well, as touched on above, the five-year-old hasn’t done too much, though he was entered in a rather hot Class 2 novice hurdle at Ascot on his penultimate start, suggesting that connections do think something of him. Of course, he floundered on that occasion, but he took a clear step in the right direction when finishing third at Plumpton last time out.
This race looks no tougher than that Plumpton contest, the form of which has worked out reasonably well, with the winner earning a rating of 120 and a couple in behind going on to win since. On that evidence, today’s soft ground is also a plus, as is the step up in trip, so further improvement is far from out of the question.
With his claiming jockey taking off a handy 7 lbs, he looks quite nicely weighted with this bunch, while he also boasts the best last-time-out speed rating in the field. Another clear plus point in my book.
At the end of the day, this is hardly the deepest race in the world. It’s a modest contest at best, so the gelding wouldn't have to do much more than he did last time out to get more involved than early odds of 22/1 suggest. Putting together the few positives above, given the overall opposition quality (or relative lack of), such odds look too big and are worth taking by those seeking value for money.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day (after 97 Naps) has a running P/L of +£12.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
For those interested, here’s a monthly profit and loss breakdown (again based on a £10 level-stakes example):
September 2024 = +£34.00
October 2024 = +£6.00
November 2024 = +£15.00
December 2024 = +£50.00
2024 Overall = +105.00
January 2025 = -£120.00
February 2025 = +£20.00
