Thursday’s Nap of the Day: Jubilee Alpha to celebrate at Cheltenham?

Cheltenham is in full swing, and the first two days have certainly delivered drama and excitement in bucket loads. My first bet of the week for MrFixitsTips goes on the third day, which promises to be another cracker. I wish everyone luck with all of their remaining festival bets, whatever they may be.

I’ve decided to have a go at the opening race on the third day, which will be the relatively new Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle, ahead of which, I’ve got my eye on Jubilee Alpha.

Paul Nicholls hasn’t won this race before, though with Willie Mullins winning five of the previous nine renewals, not many trainers have. At the time of writing, Nicholls isn’t exactly having a vintage festival either, but I do think that he’s got a nice one here, and for my money, she ought to be a little closer to the front of the market. At 11/1, she represents a bit of each-way value.

Top free bets for the Ryanair Mares' Novice Hurdle

Big-field experience at Aintree could hold her in good stead

This mare made a winning start to life as a National Hunt Flat horse, winning at Wincanton when well backed last February, before making her only other appearance in that sphere in the big bumper race at the Aintree Festival, where she finished second to Diva Luna, who she’ll meet again here.

Of the pair, it’s Jubilee Alpha who has gone on to look the best over hurdles so far, with the six-year-old winning a Listed affair at Taunton in December, before readily scoring at Windsor in January, beating another of the horses to oppose her here in Bluey, who since looked useful when winning at Market Rasen. It’s worth mentioning that she’s now rated 124, which makes her one of the highest rated in here, so I don’t think we should be ignoring how easily Nicholls’ mare got the better of her.

Of course, in the field, we have the likes of Aurora Vega and Galileo Dame, who on sheer ratings are the best horses in here, though I’m far from certain that we’ve seen the best of Jubilee Alpha, who has improved with each of her last two runs, performing most recently as if she had lots more to give, so don’t be surprised if she’s rated something like the previously mentioned pair before long.

Like many of these big-field handicaps at the festival, it’s a bit of a lottery and there’s lots of luck needed, but I like what I’ve seen from this mare so far, while that big-field experience of her effort at the Aintree Festival should aid her cause. At 11/1, she’s the girl for me.

Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day (after 100 Naps) has a running P/L of -£18.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).

For those interested, here’s a monthly profit and loss breakdown (again based on a £10 level-stakes example):

September 2024 = +£34.00

October 2024 = +£6.00

November 2024 = +£15.00

December 2024 = +£50.00

2024 Overall = +105.00

January 2025 = -£120.00

February 2025 = +£20.00

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