Crest Of Fire ran a solid race on his second start, but was beaten by an impressive Karl Burke newcomer.
That's the risk that is attached to races like that. Unless you're in the know and have the inside scoop, newcomers can come along and put in good performances. The form from the Newbury race that Crest Of Fire was in on debut was solid form, so I rate the winner very highly.
Alnayef put in one of the worst performances I've ever seen from a selection. He was off the bridle a furlong into the two-mile race, which is very odd.
Songhai 13/2 (0.5pt EW, 4pl) – Curragh 2.25
I'm not a huge fan of backing the younger horses against the older horses in races like this, but I'm going to do it anyway.
The younger horses are always an attractive proposition as they carry less weight. The problem with this is that they are less mature physically and mentally. Obviously, this isn't the case every time, but for the most part, it's true. This is why we see the older horses, who are carrying more weight, win races like this. This race is slightly different, and that's because the Irish sprinting scene isn't strong, and hasn't been strong for many years. Because of this, I am more than happy to take a chance on a three-year-old.
Songhai was the one I wanted to have a play on. There are solid horses in this, but they haven't been improving, and I think a horse can surpass them. Songhai is a very lightly raced horse, with just four runs in her career to date. She has some solid form this year, behind First Instinct and Powerful Nation. Those runs have been over 5f and 5.5f, where she has been strong at the finish. I believe this extra distance, on a stiffer track, will be ideal.
Having stable jockeys is always the ideal scenario. I wouldn't read into Ben Coen not being in the saddle. Ben is a bigger jockey, and cannot make 8st 9lbs, unless he were to drain himself. Wayne Lordan is the perfect replacement.
Currawood 15/8 (2pt) – Curragh 2.55
Even though I've just stated I'm not a huge fan of backing the younger horses against older horses, I'm contradicting myself two races in a row.
Similar to the race above, I really don't rate the older horses in this race. Apart from the top weight, Lord Massusus, the rest don't appear to be anything special. I think some people will get carried away by Skukuza's impressive handicap win at this track a month or so ago, but it turns out the form is fairly rancid.
Currawood looks like the obvious horse in this race. He is the joint-top-rated horse in the race and carries much less weight than most. He has already finished ahead of Alakazi at Leopardstown when being beaten by Green Impact, which looks like solid form. I think Fiercy Lucy could also run a solid race, but she hasn't quite kicked on this year. Not only that, she gets a much more inexperienced jockey on board, which isn't ideal in races like this.
GambleAware