Saturday's Lucky 15 was a total disaster, with two non-runners.
It's a strange decision to pull a horse out unless he scoped badly on the AW, but that's what happened, as well as Habooba being an NR at York.
The two runners who were left didn't manage to win, but one definitely should have won.
Dutch Finale was weak in the market, going off around 10/1. Billy Loughnane put in an unusually poor ride, getting boxed in. If he had the run that the winner had, he'd have won by at least a length.
Jamie Spencer on Ninth Crusade makes me never want to back him on any horse again. I said in the write-up that he is the only concern. The horse was a tad keen, but he purposely breaks from the stalls slowly and employs the same tactics. He couldn't settle the horse, and ultimately was eased down. The horse raced prominently last time out, so it's a baffling decision.
Advised as an each-way Lucky 15.
Pride Of Arras 15/2 (3pl) – Curragh 4.10
On official ratings and on paper, this race should be won by Lambourn. But the Derby form might not be cemented. Epsom is a dodgy track, and the occasion can get to a lot of inexperienced horses, so with that said, I'll take a chance on Pride Of Arras.
The Dante form was horrendous in the Derby, with many of the horses in that race finishing towards the rear in the Derby. However, I think it's too early to totally write it off. Pride Of Arras was impressive in the Dante, and there was a real chance that he was undercooked for that race. Unfortunately, things didn't go to plan at Epsom, but I expect a much better version of Pride Of Arras today on a more conventional track.
Lambourn is a solid horse and might be a superstar, but I don't get those vibes just yet. The runner-up is a good horse, but isn't a world beater, so I think it might be worth taking him on.
Enchanted Garden 8/1 (4pl) – Curragh 5.20
I cannot remember which thread I put up Enchanted Garden, but he has definitely been a selection, and I fancy him to go well today.
Last time out, he was backed in from decent odds to around 12/1, but didn't enjoy the run of the race or how the race unfolded. He was running over a mile last time out, in the race that Skukuza won (the same race I slated). That race wasn't run at a great tempo, and Enchanted Garden was sat in a pocket on the rail. From watching that race back, I think he'll enjoy the drop back to seven furlongs. Dropping back in trip normally ensures a quicker pace, and I believe he needs a strongly run race.
I firmly believe that this horse is sitting on a good handicap mark of 74 and has at least 6-10 lbs of improvement from this rating. It wouldn't surprise me if he's strong in the market, even if he is weak at the beginning.
Goliath 11/4 (2pl) – Saint Cloud 4.30
This Group 1 is a fantastic race; it's a shame we have no British or Irish horses turning up, but the French have stacked it.
Calandagan is a very good horse; he showed that numerous times last year, but he is quirky. His record of four runner-up finishes in a row makes me think he has a block, similar to the filly who was at Royal Ascot last week in these colours. Goliath won the King George last year and has returned in good form this year.
I bet against Goliath last time out, as I thought he was running over an inadequate trip. In hindsight, he's just a very good horse, and that race would have set him up nicely for a tilt at today's race.
Malystic 16/1 (3pl) – Uttoxeter 4.20
I've tried to stay away from horses who require a bounce back to form, but I couldn't help myself with Malystic.
The old boy is an eleven-year-old, and on his day, he was a very useful horse. He has started to slide down the handicap, which makes life easier for him, and I think this is a race he could find his old form.
He is running off a mark of 133, but he showed that he can still mix it in races last year. We are twelve months on from when he was competing at a decent level, but his run in March was a decent effort. I think you've got to draw a blind eye to his last effort in a Grade 3 at Ayr, as he did run to an RPR of 141 at Doncaster the time before. They could easily retire him, but the fact that they're still going makes me believe he is still showing signs on the gallops.
GambleAware