It was a shame to see another non-runner ruin the Saturday Lucky 15 bet.
Existent was a non-runner, which turned the Lucky 15 into a Patent bet. All of the three remaining horses were placed, which returned a profit of double the stake.
Today's Lucky 15 bet is advised as an each-way Lucky 15.
Quebella 9/2 (4pl) – Southwell 4.40
One of my old cliff horses, Wisper, turns up for this race. As much as I'd like to back him, he won recently and finds himself on a tough handicap mark, so instead, I'm going for Quebella.
Richard Hughes enjoyed a Group 1 winner on Saturday and has had a decent season up to now. His runner Quebella has a nice progressive profile for this type of race, and I think her official rating of 87 gives her a solid chance.
She won on the all-weather on her debut, and then ran well in a novice race the time after whilst carrying a penalty. The form of that race has been franked by the winner, third and fourth. After that, they sent her for a Listed race, where she finished fifth. That race was on soft ground, which might not have been ideal for her, and I think a return to handicaps and the AW will be better for her.
Mr Lightside 15/2 (3pl) – Southwell 6.15
This race is a difficult one because it's hard to determine which horses are on good handicap marks. I think focussing on the horses with proven group form is the way to go, so I'm happy to chance my arm with the top weight.
Mr Lightside is battle-hardened for a three-year-old and has some very good form. Last year he was productive during the middle of the season, then was tried at a higher level where he ran well on a couple of occasions.
This year, he was second to Sayidah Dariyan, who has since finished fourth in a Group 1 at Royal Ascot. That was over 6f where he led but couldn't keep up with the winner once he passed him. He ran a solid race in a Listed race at York and then was poor at Royal Ascot in a handicap when slightly fancied.
I think the drop back to 5f and having a 5lb claimer on board gives him a very solid each-way chance.
Dino Bellagio 15/2 (4pl) – Southwell 6.45
At the prices, I cannot have Dino Bellagio at the price he is. He is better known as a jumps horse, but he has put in some solid performances on the flat this year, and they will have been over inadequate trips.
Paul Mulrennan isn't my type of jockey, but he will be a good jockey for this horse in this race. I think he will be ridden cold at the back of the field to ensure he sees out the two miles, and if he does, then he will produce him at the right time.
His runs this year have been over 1m 3f and 1m 4f, but the return to 2m will definitely suit. This lad was a two-time bumper winner over 2m at the start of his career, producing some good RPRs in the process. He hasn't taken to hurdling, so I wouldn't read into his jumps form bar the bumper runs. He has been staying on strongly in the late stages during his flat campaign, and for that reason I think he is a solid ew bet.
Wasdell Dundalk 5/2 (3pl) – Perth 3.43
During the summer months, Wasdell Dundalk is a great horse for the Lisa Harrison stable. He always seems to pop up at least once or twice most years, and his handicap mark has dropped to his winning mark at this venue from last year, so he gets my vote.
He likes this track and has won here four times before. The good summer ground will be in his favour, and the trip seems to be ideal for him.
GambleAware