Saturday's Lucky 15 was very poor.
We had one winner in the shape of Classic Encounter, and one placed horse.
If you backed the Lucky 15 at a 50p EW, you would have gotten just over £6 back, which is definitely not ideal.
This bet is advised as a straight win Lucky 15.
Hover 9/4 – Salisbury 2.50
For some strange reason, whenever a horse returns from a huge layoff and runs a big race, they struggle to back it up. If that's the case, then so be it. However, there is another angle that the horses could come on again, and that's the approach I've taken with Hover.
Hover was off the track for 1099 days before returning at Newbury and outrunning his odds of 22/1 to finish second by a head. I refuse to believe that Martyn Meade had his horse anywhere near 100% race fit, as he was very weak in the market. The handicapper has put him up by 3lbs, and the 3lb claimer who was on board last time out is no longer on board, but I think he'll be much fitter now.
I don't believe that they would be racing this horse unless they believed he'd win races, as he clearly has had plenty of issues.
Ajuda Road 10/1 – Salisbury 4.00
I am more than happy to be backing a newcomer in this two-year-old race.
The horses who have the experience edge don't look to be anything out of the ordinary, so it's definitely feasible that a horse on debut can win.
Ajuda Road will know his job much more than many of the other newcomers, as he was a breeze-up horse. He didn't fetch a huge amount at the sales, but he could be good enough to win this. He is a full brother to a horse who won on debut, which backs my previous sentence.
Crimson Spirit 11/4 – Salisbury 5.00
I think you'll struggle to find a better piece of form than Crimson Spirit's recent run at York.
He finished third in a 23-runner affair at York in a competitive Class 4 race, and had a tough ask when you watch the race back. He had to come from further back than the two who finished in front of him, but it was still a very solid performance.
I cannot see a horse that would do better in that York race, so this is definitely a step down in quality.
The track should help him out if they decide to have him further back again, due to the stiff finish that Salisbury possesses.
Rock Melody 8/1 – Hamilton 6.15
I rate the chance of Abduction in this contest, but the fact that Paul Mulrennan has opted for Rock Melody has put me in her direction.
Paul gets the pick of the rides for the Jim Goldie stable, so his decision to pick this horse speaks volumes. She is not the best handicapped horse in the race, but she is a capable sprinter on her day.
She managed to win a race at this track last August when encountering traffic problems, so the course form is a big positive.
Any rain that falls will increase her chance.
GambleAware