As always, thanks to Cairnzy for doing the Lucky 15 thread for Saturday's racing.
He had one winner in the shape of Ethical Diamond, who romped home in the Ebor, winning it like a Group horse in a handicap.
Cairnzy was unfortunately sucked into backing Rosalion, who continues to be a nearly horse. He is a very good horse, but has gone close too many times without getting his head in front.
Suzie Songs ran a creditable race at the Curragh, but the odds-on O'Brien horse was far too good in the end.
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Treble Tee 6/1 (4pl) – Goodwood 1.50
Course form around Goodwood is a massive advantage when backing a horse at this venue. It's such a tricky track, and is like marmite for a lot of horses. My selection, Treble Tee, has to prove he handles it, but the form he has shown in his short career to date is the reason to back him.
As always, backing the younger horses against the older horses this year hasn't been profitable for me. However, Treble Tee showed that he can put it up to the older horses at Thirsk last time out. At Thirsk, that was his first run since being gelded and having the wind-op. He finished in second, losing by a neck to Big Leader. That winner finished a close second at York earlier in the week, which looks like really solid form. Behind, you had solid older handicappers like Hi Royal and La Trinidad, who are stalwarts for these kind of races.
Stimulative Trip 14/1 (3pl) – Goodwood 2.25
At larger odds, I thought Stimulative Trip was worth a chance in this Group 3 contest.
There is no outstanding claims from any horse in this race, so I don't think you can write off any of the horses turning up. I know that Sir Mark Prescott and Luke Morris think Moon Target is their best juvenile this year, and is one to follow over the next couple of seasons. That horse is 2/2 this year, and does look smart, but she is short enough in the market. Alpinista, 2022 Arc winner for trainer and jockey, ran in this race in 2019 and wasn't quick enough, and I think the same can happen for this filly.
David Menuisier is a trainer who doesn't get too many first time out winners, especially juvenile runners, so seeing his runner win at 20/1 on debut was definitely a shock. The fact that she was so weak in the market suggests they didn't think she was ready to win, so she might be a lot better than originally thought. The form isn't great, but she did it easily and can definitely progress again.
Saqqara Sands 6/1 (2pl) – Goodwood 3.35
It's understandable that Jonquil is towards the head of the market given his form from the start of the season, but I expected a lot more from him last time out.
Jonquil's last race was a strange one in terms of the pace, but he didn't make up any ground from the back like he should've been able to do. That makes me think he wasn't in love with the track, so even with the added furlong, I'm against him.
Saqqara Sands forced a dead heat against her stablemate at Glorious Goodwood in a Group 3 over 7f. She stayed on powerfully towards the end, and I think the added furlong will play to her strengths. There are some good older horses, but she can definitely bridge the gap based on what I saw last time out.
Knicks 8/1 (4pl) – Beverley 2.40
Being drawn in stall 7 could make this complicated for Knicks, but hopefully, he breaks well from the stalls and avoids trouble in running.
Knicks ran in an ultra-competitive handicap at Haydock two weeks ago, where he finished ninth. However, there was a significant amount of money for him in that race. When this happens from a yard like Mick Easterby's, it has to be noticed as they do love to land a gamble from time to time. With that in mind, I think they seriously expected a good effort, so he deserves a second chance.
The race at Haydock was a bit of a farce. They split into two groups, and if you weren't near the stand's side, you had no chance. Knicks were drawn on the other side, so it wasn't a surprise that he finished nowhere.
GambleAware