We're aiming to pump out a few Lucky 15 threads over the Christmas period, with Sunday being the first of a very busy period of racing.
Rizzel's tips
Ghost Pepper 9/1 – Fakenham 12.13
My first selection of the Lucky 15 bet is a bit of a speculative selection with Ghost Pepper. At the time of writing, he has opened up at 9/1, and I think whichever ways the odds go will decide how this horse runs, as he is jumping up massively in trip from 2m to 3m on his handicap debut after not showing too much from his previous three starts.
He has gone off at odds of 50/1, 200/1 and 22/1 for his three hurdles starts to date, with his best performance coming on his debut. He has a couple of stayers at this trip in the pedigree from the Grand Dame's side, so there is optimism to be had over the distance. The booking of Jonathan Burke is an interesting one for this yard as he hasn't be used too much for D J Jeffrey's, and Burke is riding very well at the moment.
Captain Speaking 14/1 (3pl) – Fakenham 3.13
There are more ‘sexier' picks for this race, but I've found myself backing the biggest outsider of the field with Captain Speaking who is definitely good enough to win this race on old pieces of form when he raced in France.
The rain is expected to land at Fakenham, and given how badly that track drains, I think it could turn the surface to soft, which should make it ideal for Captain Speaking who has some very good pieces of form on soft ground over similar distances in French chases. He was 2nd in a 23k race in May, recording an RPR of 120, and last year he recorded an RPR of 129 over the same trip, and if you go back further, he was a Listed winner on soft ground over just a furlong further.
He had a recent run at Cheltenham, where he wasn't fancied in the market, and he ran like it was a pipe opener. He has been dropped 3lbs for that run and gets a further 3lbs off with Tabitha Worsley in the saddle, making him a well-handicapped horse.
Monsieur Kodi 11/4 (3pl) – Lingfield 12.30
This 6f sprint race is an interesting one, with a case being made for nearly every horse in the race, including the outsiders. G'Day Mate was my initial selection for the AW training maestro Mick Appleby, but I thought that the 7lb claimer on Monsieur Kodi was too good to pass up.
Monsieur Kodi has won a Class 4 (0-78) off a mark of 74, winning comfortably in the end after pressing the pacesetters around Chelmsford. Today, he races off a mark of 70 as young Warren Fentiman takes off a very handy 7lbs, and that is enough for me to believe he is the one to beat. I've tried to find some value in this lucky 15, aiming for an EW angle, but I think you can get away with a shorter one if you're confident in that horse winning.
Sassy Redhead 14/1 (4pl) – Lingfield 1.30
For my final selection of the Lucky 15, I'm going to need Sassy Redhead to bounce back to form to win this race for the second time in a row after landing this race 12 months ago.
When Sassy Redhead won this race last year she was in much better form having finished second on the run prior, but she was smashed in the betting into 5/4F and given she is just 1lb higher than the win last year, she is worth a shot at double figure odds. She will have to beat horses who finished ahead of him last time out, but we know she has the ability at this level.
Advised bet – Each Way Lucky 15
