It's always frustrating when a horse loses on the line, and that is what happened with Hankelow in the second race at Doncaster.
I think Clifford Lee chuckled the ride on Hankelow. In my opinion, Clifford got caught by surprise by the winner. He looked fully focused on the horse that was leading the race, and when he got past that horse, it looked like he was lethargic in the saddle. The Godolphin horse caught him on the blindside and pipped him on the line. Not only that, but Clifford stopped whipping his mount with at least a furlong to go. From watching the replay back multiple times, he had at least two more goes with the whip before he had to stop.
Promethian in the first race was awful, and never looked like challenging from the rear.
Treble Tee 11/4 (1pt) – Doncaster 1.15
To start St Leger day, I've picked out Treble Tee to win the opener.
Even though this is a big field handicap, and races of this size would normally mean it's ultra-competitive, I don't think that is the case. Three or four horses stood out as who could win this, and for that reason, I was more than happy to back Treble Tee, who was a previous selection of mine.
I tipped up Treble Tee at Goodwood last time out on the Lucky 15 thread, and I thought he ran a solid race. He went for a gap up the rail, which was a tight squeeze, but he got the gaps. It was an easier passage for the winner, who went down the outside and won nicely. Despite not winning, I think the form of that race is solid. The winner has been threatening to do that for a while, and was a horse on a good handicap mark.
Oisin Murphy is in the saddle, which is a positive booking. He always comes alive in the big meetings on the big days.
Air Force One 5/1 (1pt) – Doncaster 2.25
Unlike the race mentioned above, this is a very competitive race, so backing the favourite probably isn't ideal. However, Air Force One has been in tremendous form towards the back end of the season, and he has definitely been unlucky not to walk away with more than one win.
Geoff Oldroyd has kept him busy in the last month or so. He won the jumps jockey handicap in easy fashion before going to York and finishing third behind Trefor. Last weekend at York, he finished second once again, and on both of his recent starts, he hasn't had the smoothest of passages through the field. I think with a clear run, he would have won both of those races. In big field handicaps as a horse that doesn't race prominently, these problems are likely, but if he gets a clear run through today, he definitely will be the one to beat.
He is the favourite, but he isn't a short-priced favourite, and 5/1 is more than fair. He is drawn around a lot of the pace in this race, so if they decide to sit closer to the pace, he is near the correct horses who will bring him deep into this race.
Convergent 3/1 (1pt) – Leopardstown 3.50
Another returning selection is Convergent, who is running at Leopardstown at the Irish Champions weekend.
I tipped Convergent in the German Derby 69 days ago. I was confident he was going to win that day, and it looked likely until the final stages when he was pipped on the line by one of the home horses. I think he is the made threat to Al Aasy at the top of the market, and I always respect Karl Burke's horses when he brings them to Ireland.
Al Aasy won easily last time out at Goodwood, in a race he should have won. He looked fantastic in that race, but he always does well in Group 3 races. Today's ground is much different to that of last time out, and he hasn't always performed on testing ground, so at the odds I think you've got to take him on. Convergent won on debut on soft ground last year, and looked like a really nice horse to follow on the back of that result. His sire Fascinating Rock has always produced good soft-ground horses, so I am confident that he enjoys the ground.
Expanded 11/1 (1pt) – Leopardstown 4.55
It is a big risk going for Expanded in this race on the back of his two lacklustre efforts in both UK and Irish Guineas at the start of the season, but his odds make him worth the risk.
It's difficult to weigh up whether he hasn't trained on fully, or that he desperately needs soft ground. Aidan O'Brien has been waiting for bottomless ground since his defeats in the Guineas, which makes me think that Ballydoyle still believe in him being a solid horse. Today will be the acid test. He could need the run due to him being off the track for 112 days, and the Ascot race might be his main target, but at 12/1, I'm more than happy to take a punt.
If Ryan Moore wasn't injured and was on board, I think he would be half the odds he currently is, and how often do you see an Aidan O'Brien horse at these prices on home soil?
I'm going with a straight win, as I think he'll either turn up or flop once more.
GambleAware