Saturday's thread will be posted before the final selection of Friday has run, but hopefully, Oisin can make it 2/2 on the day.
The Outlaw made it a winning start on Friday with a win at Carlisle under a great front-running ride by the 7lb claimer. The horse was strong-minded as he had to dig very deep to fend off the closers, so fair play to both the jockey and horse.
Term Of Endearment 11/4 (2pt) – York 3.15
I think this race comes down to whether Term Of Endearment is still able to operate at the level she did last year. If the answer is yes, she wins this; if the answer is no, then an improver can cause her problems.
As you can already see, I clearly believe she will win this race, and she still possesses all the ability which was good enough for her to win this race last year, before going to Goodwood and winning a Group 2. This time around, she is now trained by William Haggas, and is owned by a new owner, but neither of which makes me think of her any differently.
She has had a run this season, which was in Meydan around 6 weeks ago, where she finished 7th when running over two miles. She wasn't fancied in the market, and was trying a new trip which doesn't look likely to suit her running style as she is quirky and can take a pull in her races, so seeing out the extra yardage was always going to be a problem first time out. Despite that, it would've blown away the cobwebs and ensured she was ahead of schedule when running in the UK, like today's race.
I fully expect her to be tuned up for today's race, as she is trying to defend her title from 12 months ago, and a repeat performance would see her tough to beat. The horses she beat last year are much better than this bunch, and I think she beat them quite comfortably last year, as whenever she hits the front, she idles and goes to her left, so her winning margins aren't the greatest.
Grey Fable 9/1 (0.5pt EW 4pl, SkyBet/PaddyPower/WilliamHill)- Chester 3.20
Whenever Karl Thornton sends a horse to the UK, you have to have a second look at his record when coming across the pond is second-to-none.
His sole runner of the day in the UK is Grey Fable, who is already a course winner at Chester, so there's already something to like before you seriously study the form/horse.
In the last five seasons, Karl is 4/13 in the UK, with 4 more being placed, and last year he was 3/10 with a further 3 placed efforts, with today's horse racking up two of those wins and two placed efforts, with form of 2,1,1,2.
Grey Fable has been kept to 12f for the majority of his recent runs on the flat, where he has done very well, as I've just mentioned, but it might be time for him to try a longer trip, and with the record at this track and Karl's record in the UK, I think it's worth the risk of being on this horse on his first attempt over 2m on the flat. His pedigree doesn't fill you with confidence that this is the right move, but he does stay on strongly over shorter distances, and sending over an Irish jockey for one ride suggests they are confident.
GambleAware