Crepe Suzette is simply a horse who is hard to win with.
He was given every chance by Tyler Heard, but lacks gears when the race heats up. The winner landed a third win in a row, and did catch the eye with Ray Dawson racing off a low weight. Tyler looked confident, turning for home, and maybe he should have got going on his mount earlier. I don't think it would have made a great difference, but we'll never know.
Classic Encounter ran a rare poor race. The race was a bit of a farce, and many of the jockeys need to look at themselves in the mirror. The leader did not go a good gallop, but they let him get a ten length lead for the majority of the race.
Spicy Marg isn't as good as I and Michael Bell thought she was. She was impressive on debut, but has looked very average in her last two starts. I thought she deserved a second chance, but that's the last chance she'll get from me until I see something different.
More Thunder 11/8 (1pt) – Newmarket 2.50
Tipping up a short-priced horse in a race like the Bunbury Cup is probably foolish, but More Thunder should take all the beating.
He got going too late in the race over 6f at Royal Ascot. He couldn't go the gallop which was set, but his stamina kicked in and he was narrowly beaten. I think the step up to seven furlongs will be ideal for him as it will allow him to hit the top gear. Also, the stiffness of Newmarket will also place emphasis on stamina. I don't think he'll win this with ease, but I think he will be good enough to win.
You can't completely write off the others in the field, as it is a competitive race, but if there's a horse who is ridiculously well handicapped, it's More Thunder.
Blue For You 9/2 (1pt) – York 2.00
If there was ever a race for Blue For You to win, it's this opener on John Smith's day.
Blue For You has been a great horse for David O'Meara and will often run well in the big handicaps, but will find a few too good. However, when he drops to a good mark, he gets at least one or two wins a season, and this race has been nice to him in the past. He has managed to win his race two years in a row, with marks of 99 and 95. Today, he runs off a mark of 94, so he is entitled to go very close.
There are some younger and unexposed horses in this race, but I get the impression this has always been his target for the season. He has run well this year, so it's not like he doesn't retain the ability to win a race like this. David O'Meara is a great target trainer and does very well in handicaps like this, especially at York.
Archivist 5/2 (1pt) – York 3.10
Another favourite in the big handicap of the day is the horse I think has a superb chance of winning.
Archivist made hard work last time out over a couple of furlongs shorter at York, but managed to get the job done. Today's race has always been the plan for him, and William Haggas has been vocal about believing this lad is a Class 1 horse at the very minimum. If he is, and if he enjoys the step up in trip (I think he will), then he should be far too good off a rating of 95.
The younger horses are always an appealing bet against the older horses as they get the weight-for-age allowance, so I can see why he has been hammered in the market. He was 10/1 a couple of days ago in the antepost market, but the antepost favourite hasn't turned up, which has seen his price drop significantly.
He stayed on nicely last time out, and combining that with a high-class middle-distance pedigree, I think he'll love this new distance.
Adam Farragher gets the ride and gets an opportunity to land a rare big pot for Haggas.
GambleAware