We walked away with one winner from two selections on Friday.
Many Men was tenacious in his victory under Tom Marquand. I didn't think he would have to battle as hard as he did to get the win, but fair play to the horse. He clearly enjoyed the step up in trip, and managed to land us a 2pt win with a small rule 4.
Arantes Nascimento didn't run too well and wasn't good enough to make it two on the day. He was boxed in, but in hindsight, it doesn't matter. He was never winning that race, no matter where he was positioned.
Flowerhead 7/2 (1pt) – Ascot 1.40
Some will argue it was a bit of a fluke that Flowerhead finished as runner-up at Royal Ascot at odds of 100/1, but the form suggests it was a very good effort.
She finished behind True Love from the Aidan O'Brien yard in the Queen Mary Group 2. True Love looks like a fantastic juvenile over the sprint trips, and has since followed up with another Group 2 win against the boys. Flowerhead was only 1.25L behind the winner that day, and was running on at the finish, leaving the impression she could be better over further.
Today, she runs over 6f, so gets the extra furlong. With further improvement likely with the extra 200m, she could be tough to beat if getting a clear run through. We know she likes Ascot, and everything points towards a very big run.
Aalto 5/1 (1pt EW, 6pl)- Ascot 3.00
Going for one of the shorter-priced horses in a heritage handicap is something I do try and avoid. There are plenty of each-way angles you can play in this race at much bigger odds, but I think with a clear run, Aalto is the one to beat.
It was a bit of a surprise to see Aalto finish second in the Bunbury Cup a couple of weeks ago at big odds, but it shouldn't have been a shock. This year, he has only run twice, which was a poor effort on his return, but then bounced back at Newmarket. He won the Bunbury Cup last year and was fancied to win it, so that race was clearly his target for this season. He ran a belter to put More Thunder all the way to the line, and is now 1lb lower in the handicap than he was at Newmarket.
Ian Williams went for this race last year after the Bunbury Cup win, and he didn't get a clear run throughout the entire race. He was blocked on multiple occasions and still managed to finish 2.25L behind the winner. I think it all comes down to William Buick navigating this horse through the correct path. If he manages to do that, we're onto a winner.
It's not a strong bet due to the nature of the race, but he is so well-handicapped that he has to be the play.
GambleAware