Cairnzy will have been disappointed with how Target Man ran at Newcastle. For whatever reason, they let the winner dictate the fractions and no one pestered him for the lead. The race was run at a snails pace, and turned into a sprint for the last two furlongs which did not suit Target Man who was fine with going the sedate gallop but lacked the gears to accelerate with the horses around him. He stayed on again at the finish, but it was far too late and he'll probably be suited over slightly further or with a true gallop to aim at.
Rizzel's tips
Final Demand 6/4 – Leopardstown 1.15
Whenever there's a Grade 1 of this size (field size), it's always a tad risky having a dabble as even if you land on the ‘stable pick', that doesn't mean much when it comes to Willie Mullins' horses as we all know any of his string can win these types of races, so it's always a risk knowing there's four or five from the same stable who could come out victorious. However, with that said, I think the novice hurdling scene of this year isn't that strong, and I thought Final Demand put in a lovely performance on his hurdling debut and if he can improve on that, he could win this with a fair bit of authority.
Supersundae is the horse who is priced up to challenge Final Demand the most, and based on his recent third, he has the best form in the race having finishing behind The Yellow Clay in a Grad 1 at Christmas time. He was comfortably beaten that day, so I think he is vulnerable to an improver and given that Paul has sided with Final Demand after just one run, it speaks volumes. Jasmin De Vaux was hyped up as one of the horses to follow for the novice scene this year on the back of his strong bumper campaign last season, but his jumping is terrible so he has to be swerved. If he brushes up on his jumping then you can give him a chance, but it was very bad last time out.
Etalon 9/4 – Sandown 2.00
I am always wary of backing a Skelton horse this close to Cheltenham and the other big spring festivals as you never know what they are planning, as they are one of the main yards that will target certain handicaps and ensure they go there with the lowest possible handicap mark. So, going for Etalon in this race is a gamble as it might not be the race they want to win, with a bigger prize down the line being the target. However, in a race of this nature, which looks set up perfectly for Etalon, I'm happy enough to take a punt.
This horse made good inroads over fences this time last year, winning at Sandown to complete a hat-trick over fences. That last win over today's C&D was off a few pounds lower in the handicap, but he did beat Gunsight Ridge and beat him comfortably. He has been ahead of Martator, and I think he has the measure of that horse again off these weights as Martator has improved but has won some races which weren't the best standard and has seen his handicap mark inflated massively and I don't think he's as good as what the handicapper rates him.
The soft ground seems to be ideal for this horse, so the ground will see Etalon to his best. He can go forward, and as we saw last year, this track works nicely for him too. Classic Maestro will be a danger, but he has done his winning in lower-quality races in the North, so will find this much harder.
Sir Psycho 11/1 EW (4pl) – Musselburgh 2.50
On paper, it looks like Harry Derham has been going through a rough patch as he has had 2 winners from his last 30 or so runners, but he has had many runner-ups in that time frame and in the last couple of days he has had two winners so it shows that his yard are in good form, and I am a big fan of his when sending his horses to Scotland, which makes this race a tough decision as he has three.
Of the three, I thought Sir Psycho was the one to be on as he is now back over 2m 4f, which is definitely the type of trip he needs and does his best work at. He is a good two-miler, but that's not his trip, even on bottomless ground he isn't best effective over the minimum trip as history would suggest. However, running over this intermediate trip he has RPRs of 141, 138, 141 and 138, and given he ran well last time out over a shorter-than-ideal trip, recording an RPR of 141, that shows that he is in tremendous form and today is the time to catch him now back up to a suitable distance.
Paul O'Brien is the stable jockey and would have had the pick of three horses so with him going with Sir Psycho is another positive. At double-figure odds, he looks like tremendous value even on ground which isn't his best.
