daily racing tips 4

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Cairnzy will have been disappointed with how Target Man ran at Newcastle. For whatever reason, they let the winner dictate the fractions and no one pestered him for the lead. The race was run at a snails pace, and turned into a sprint for the last two furlongs which did not suit Target Man who was fine with going the sedate gallop but lacked the gears to accelerate with the horses around him. He stayed on again at the finish, but it was far too late and he'll probably be suited over slightly further or with a true gallop to aim at.

Rizzel's tips

Final Demand 6/4 – Leopardstown 1.15

Whenever there's a Grade 1 of this size (field size), it's always a tad risky having a dabble as even if you land on the ‘stable pick', that doesn't mean much when it comes to Willie Mullins' horses as we all know any of his string can win these types of races, so it's always a risk knowing there's four or five from the same stable who could come out victorious. However, with that said, I think the novice hurdling scene of this year isn't that strong, and I thought Final Demand put in a lovely performance on his hurdling debut and if he can improve on that, he could win this with a fair bit of authority.

Supersundae is the horse who is priced up to challenge Final Demand the most, and based on his recent third, he has the best form in the race having finishing behind The Yellow Clay in a Grad 1 at Christmas time. He was comfortably beaten that day, so I think he is vulnerable to an improver and given that Paul has sided with Final Demand after just one run, it speaks volumes. Jasmin De Vaux was hyped up as one of the horses to follow for the novice scene this year on the back of his strong bumper campaign last season, but his jumping is terrible so he has to be swerved. If he brushes up on his jumping then you can give him a chance, but it was very bad last time out.

Etalon 9/4 – Sandown 2.00

I am always wary of backing a Skelton horse this close to Cheltenham and the other big spring festivals as you never know what they are planning, as they are one of the main yards that will target certain handicaps and ensure they go there with the lowest possible handicap mark. So, going for Etalon in this race is a gamble as it might not be the race they want to win, with a bigger prize down the line being the target. However, in a race of this nature, which looks set up perfectly for Etalon, I'm happy enough to take a punt.

This horse made good inroads over fences this time last year, winning at Sandown to complete a hat-trick over fences. That last win over today's C&D was off a few pounds lower in the handicap, but he did beat Gunsight Ridge and beat him comfortably. He has been ahead of Martator, and I think he has the measure of that horse again off these weights as Martator has improved but has won some races which weren't the best standard and has seen his handicap mark inflated massively and I don't think he's as good as what the handicapper rates him.

The soft ground seems to be ideal for this horse, so the ground will see Etalon to his best. He can go forward, and as we saw last year, this track works nicely for him too. Classic Maestro will be a danger, but he has done his winning in lower-quality races in the North, so will find this much harder.

Sir Psycho 11/1 EW (4pl) – Musselburgh 2.50

On paper, it looks like Harry Derham has been going through a rough patch as he has had 2 winners from his last 30 or so runners, but he has had many runner-ups in that time frame and in the last couple of days he has had two winners so it shows that his yard are in good form, and I am a big fan of his when sending his horses to Scotland, which makes this race a tough decision as he has three.

Of the three, I thought Sir Psycho was the one to be on as he is now back over 2m 4f, which is definitely the type of trip he needs and does his best work at. He is a good two-miler, but that's not his trip, even on bottomless ground he isn't best effective over the minimum trip as history would suggest. However, running over this intermediate trip he has RPRs of 141, 138, 141 and 138, and given he ran well last time out over a shorter-than-ideal trip, recording an RPR of 141, that shows that he is in tremendous form and today is the time to catch him now back up to a suitable distance.

Paul O'Brien is the stable jockey and would have had the pick of three horses so with him going with Sir Psycho is another positive. At double-figure odds, he looks like tremendous value even on ground which isn't his best.

Horse Racing Tips
Final Demand
Leopardstown - 1:15 pm

6/4 @ Bet365

Etalon
Sandown Park - 2:00 pm

9/4 @ Bet365

Sir Psycho
Musselburgh - 2:50 pm

11/1 EW @ Bet365

27 Comments
  1. Avatar of Elvis Parsley
    elvis parsley 2 months ago

    Sandown 2-35.
    Kalif du berlais to beat handstands EVENS (double your dough)
    Kalif du berlais 7-2 win
    Both William HILLS.

    Bought from France after one race, and was decent last year over hurdles but his last 2 chase efforts look like a horse who has found his niche and is improving fast.
    Being french bred the heavy going won’t be an issue and gets a handy 4 pounds pull off the other 3.
    Good little race this is and kalif, handstands and jingo Baie will all be relevant at Cheltenham and aintree.

    🏇🏇🏇🏇🏇🏇🏇🏇🏇🏇🏇🏇🏇🏇🏇🏇🏇

    Irish arkle 2-55 leopardstown 🇮🇪.
    Ile atlantique 3-1 corals……

    Not one for trends myself as trends are in the past but 2 stand out here .
    No 5 year old has won this in living memory, well since 2000 lol, can’t find results before that, today’s favourite majborough is aged 5 🤔.
    And
    11 of the last 12 winners have been aged 6 or 7..
    Ile Atlantique is 7

    2
  2. Avatar of Gateacre Pete
    Gateacre Pete 2 months ago

    Coolberrin Hill 4.35 Leop
    Worth a little ew extra 4 places @ 45s
    100s top 3 for the optimistic
    GL with all your bets today

    2
    • Avatar of Elvis Parsley
      elvis parsley 2 months ago

      Nice to see you post mate.
      Where you been ?

      2
  3. Avatar of Gateacre Pete
    Gateacre Pete 2 months ago

    Thanks Elvis. I do look most days but not been getting involved. I’ve been in the doldrums regarding picking winners. Lets hope that changes soon. Good luck with your bets tomorrow mate 🤞

    2
    • Avatar of Elvis Parsley
      elvis parsley 2 months ago

      We all hang around the doldrums mate, it’s what we do 😁.
      Don’t be shy about posting, you won’t get any clog off the regulars here, we are not paid so are under no pressure to deliver.
      I like your betting angle, it’s a different and imaginative way of seeking profit

      Nothing better than making dough on a horse finishing 10th 🤣

      2
    • Avatar of Gateacre Pete
      Gateacre Pete 2 months ago

      Cheers mate. 👍

  4. Avatar of Elvis Parsley
    elvis parsley 2 months ago

    DOUBLE CARPET TIPS 🇮🇪
    OFF FRIDAYS THREAD

    1.15 Nathaniel Lacy Grade 1

    Final Demand’s win at Christmas eyecatching, so much so I backed him immediately for the Albert Bartlett.
    The form was also given a big boost with the 2nd and 3rd coming out and winning nto.
    But I’ve had a look at previous winners of this race and since 2018 all winners had at least 4 runs under their belt making them a bit more battle hardened so if FD can win this after just 1 run, then he’s entitled to go and win whatever race he wants at the festival.
    But this is a deep race with many having chances if you delve into the form book.
    Declan Queally’s yard is flying at present and whatever he enters over the weekend is worth a second look, so Mozzies Sister will be on a lot of punters radar. He was beaten 4L by The Big Westerner who is towards the head of the AB market and will surely come on for that run.
    But at the odds I’ve landed on I Am Lorenzo 16/1 ew who was just beaten into 2nd at Christmas. He would have won if the race had been 10 yards further, so the extra 2f here should be exactly what he needs.The 3rd came out and won since to boost the form.
    His dam’s sire is Stowaway who is the joint leading sire in the race.
    I just think at the prices he’s a great ew shout.
    🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪

    1.50 Juvenile Hurdle

    The past 4 winners of the Triumph Hurdle have all run in this race, they haven’t necessarily won but they took part and whilst that may not be the case this year with both Lulumba and East India Dock looking ominous, it still warrants respect.
    Hello Neighbour went straight into grade 2 class for his first start over hurdles and just held on at the line to beat Lady Allen Vega who reapposes again but I expect HN to confirm the form.
    But Sainte Lucie was very impressive when winning on new year’s eve and the way Willie speaks about her he holds her in high regard and thinks she’s his No1 so I’m led to believe she will have too much for the rest here.
    Hopefully whoever wins does it impressively and we have a real clash come march.

    Sainte Lucie 2/1
    🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪

    2.25 Race and Stay h’cap hurdle

    This race is all about Meetingofthewaters who is completely thrown in of a mark of 112.
    When you consider his chase mark is 148 he should on paper be able to win as he likes.
    But with a field of 26 runners and a price of around 2/1 he has to be taken on.
    I’ve actually had a small ew bet on Rushmount current price 50/1 ( I got 66’s yesterday) who was only beaten a head by Lecky Watson back in Nov ’23 with Shannon Royale back in 3rd.
    He then won nto by 8L beating 2 horses now rated 120 and 129. His next run was over a trip too short and he ran with credit on his first start this season in a pertemps qualifier but ran out of steam towards the finish but would have needed that run.
    He’s been dropped a pound for that run so comes in here off 126 so is certainly well h’capped.
    Might be worth an Elvis special with the ew extra currently 14/1 for 10 places but I’m on at 66’s ew 5 places
    🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪

    2.55 Irish Arkle Grade 1

    According to the betting Majborough has this won already, and whilst that may be the case it won’t be easy against Ile Atlantique who has definitely improved for fences.
    But the juvenile crop from last season I think is the best we’ve seen in some time and Majborough will come out on top.
    He’s a big brute of a horse and I think this 2m 1f trip will benefit him more than the 1m 7f at the festival which is why I think Sir Gino will come out on top come march.
    🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪

    3.30 Irish Gold Cup Grade 1

    Won’t spend long on this one, basically GDC + Leopardstown = Game over.
    I might try the tri-cast of GDC, F2F and Embassy Gardens.
    🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪

    4.05 Ryanair h’cap Chase

    I really like the chances of Midnight it Is who has been well found in the market and is he’s the current fav
    But he’s fav for a reason being a huge eye catcher lto when not getting the clearest of runs but stayed on strongly suggesting with a clear run he’d have won.
    Excellent claimer Conor Stone Walsh jumps on to take a valuable 5lbs off.
    Shanbally Kid for Mullins has been well supported and makes his h’cap debut off 12lbs lower than his hurdle mark but he can’t jump a fence so I just can’t touch him.
    My Mate Mozzies could be a danger also making his h’cap debut off 148. He’s been running on the flat and comes from the same yard as my selection so hopefully I’ve chosen the right one
    🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪

    4.40 INH Flat Race Grade 2

    The Bumper form this year is a bit fuzzy with no clear standout. Usually you would see a WM hotpot line up here at short odds but it’s 3/1 the field this year which is very unusual.
    I was visually impressed with He Can’t Dance when easily winning in dec. He was entitled to do so going off at 2/9 but when challenged 2f out the response was emphatic and won really easily.
    A danger at an ew price could be Colcannon who beat Heads Up lto who then ran the current Bumper fav to 4L.
    Might just need this run as he was a NR in Dec due to an allergy but he has form.

    BOL

    6
  5. Avatar of Elvis Parsley
    elvis parsley 2 months ago

    Following on from what DC said yesterday about lack of verbal interaction here what I always like to see is a bit of reasoning behind tips even if it’s just a few words as it shows it’s not just a barrage of horse names thrown up willy nilly….

    I can’t speak for others but I bet for fun but more than that I’m a fan of the sport.
    And the golden rule is never pay for a tip (opinion).
    People who charge for tips are parasites who in general are no better than many who post in the comments here and on the football threads.
    They prey on gamblers who are in a financial mess

    There has been a couple on the football thread who posted in the comments then decided to charge using the gambla pay per view tips service and believe me if you follow with your money, you will not be in profit.
    I’ve seen odds like 8-11 and 4-5 sold as tips, jeezus wept.

    If anyone has to pay for a tip then they have to seriously evaluate why they are betting.
    Betting is never the answer to your personal financial issues, keep it fun and enjoy watching our picks lose together, but affordably lose of course 😭😭 and rejoice when once in a blue moon we caine the bookies..

    12
    • Avatar of Double carpet
      double carpet 2 months ago

      Thanks for putting my selections up Elvis and beautifully presented too 👍

      4
  6. Avatar of Recoba
    recoba 2 months ago

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿
    Musselburgh -1.42….Lukers Tipple 7/2
    🇬🇧
    Was 11 lengths behind Saint Lucile on his 1st go over hurdles and that horse contests a G1 today at Leapordstown. Not far behind a decent looking one at Cork next run giving weight away.
    Form should be good enough to be in mix here.

    GL all

    1
    • Avatar of Recoba
      recoba 2 months ago

      🇦🇪
      Couple of bucks on ex Oaklawn USA runner

      Jebil Ali -11.15….Guarani. 4/1 Bet365.
      E made decent debut and should come on

      1
    • Avatar of Recoba
      recoba 2 months ago

      Ach his jumping was rotten could see a fall coming there

      🇬🇧
      Musselburgh 4.27…No No Fizz 14/1 Ew Skybet 5 places

      GL rest of day folks 👍

  7. Avatar of CC CC
    cc 2 months ago

    DOUBLE

    Final demand top 3
    Meetingofthewaters top 4
    11/10

  8. Avatar of Double carpet
    double carpet 2 months ago

    Some significant market moves this morning.
    Majborough out to EVs and Ile Atlantique now best priced 2’s.
    Final Demand now best priced EVs in the opener.
    And will Colcannon go off fav in the bumper ?
    He was 10’s when I mentioned him yesterday.

    3
  9. Avatar of albert rose
    azzthewigan 2 months ago

    noble park 12.50

  10. Avatar of albert rose
    azzthewigan 2 months ago

    empty nest 1.00 well done all winners yesterday

  11. Avatar of albert rose
    azzthewigan 2 months ago

    sole selection 1.25

    2
  12. Avatar of Double carpet
    double carpet 2 months ago

    That was really impressive from Final Demand. Not disappointed he won as I said in my piece I have him backed for the AB at 10/1, he’s now best priced 7/2

    1
  13. Avatar of Double carpet
    double carpet 2 months ago

    Sainte Lucie pulled way too hard. Race was over as soon as it started.
    Don’t think the English horses will lose any sleep based on that race

    • Avatar of Darren Sawyer
      dazzman1979 2 months ago

      David maxwell 😂😂😂

  14. Avatar of Double carpet
    double carpet 2 months ago

    Rushmount places and pays for my day 👍

    1
  15. Avatar of Double carpet
    double carpet 2 months ago

    The Arkle will be some race. That was impressive from Majborough. If he can brush up his jumping a little he will be a tough nut to crack

    1
  16. Avatar of Ewthief
    ew thief 2 months ago

    Civil law in the first at wolves 14-1☘️☘️glall

    2
  17. Avatar of albert rose
    azzthewigan 2 months ago

    John kirkup 5.55 ew well done all winners today

  18. Avatar of Elvis Parsley
    elvis parsley 2 months ago

    My 2 picks ran shite, nothing to add 🤕
    Well done winners today 👍

  19. Avatar of Ewthief
    ew thief 2 months ago

    Lucky last capercinooo 12-1 or something like that🤷‍♂️☘️🤷‍♂️☘️

  20. Avatar of georgie41
    georgie41 2 months ago

    Anybody watching the 7.25 at newcastle on sat night the jockey on ana amaraaty ie Paul mulrennan should be banned at no time did he ever put the horse in the race with an chance of winning he finished 4th beat 2/1 lengths without any effort fro m the jockey as usual everything will be overlooked absolute disgrace if he’s not looked at ban him for 6 months at least not the first time he’s done it

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