The recent Lucky 15 bets haven't been the greatest.
Last week, there was only one on the weekend, which came at Royal Ascot. We had one good Lucky 15 during Royal Ascot; the rest were well below par. Hopefully, we can spin that around and land some winners on Saturday's Lucky 15 bet.
Habooba 7/2 – York 3.00
I was very impressed by Habooba's course and distance win a month ago. He made smooth progress in a competitive sprint, but managed to win quite cosily in the end.
He has gone up in the weights by a few pounds, but the form of the race has been franked by Jm Jungle, who won the Epsom Dash the other weekend.
He gets in this race off a decent weight, and given his liking for the track, I like his chances.
Durham Castle 4/1 – Newcastle 1.40
In the opener at Newcastle on Northumberland Plate day, I like the look of Durham Castle.
A lot of the runners in this race are exposed sprinters, but Durham Castle is on the up and has managed to win three of his last four runs. Simon & Ed Crisford do very well with these types of horses, and can progress them into Class 1 sprinters, especially the AW horses.
This isn't an easy race to win, but I like his profile, and there is likely more to come.
Ninth Crusade 13/8 – Newcastle 4.25
We won't be getting an amazing price for Ninth Crusade, as he was impressive on his debut, and he is an Irish raider. However, from the form of the horses we have seen, he is the horse to beat and will likely be too good.
The drop back to five furlongs will not be an inconvenience for him. He showed plenty of speed over 6f last time out, where he just held on from a closer. I think the drop back to 5f, with a decent pace to aim at will be better for him.
My only concern is the man in the saddle, who is prone to messing it up.
Dutch Finale 11/4 – Windsor 4.00
On paper, it might appear hard to fancy Dutch Finale back on turf, but I think there are reasons to believe he'll turn it around.
He is 0/3 on the turf and is 1/3 on the AW. Two of his runs on turf were during his two-year-old campaign in novice and maiden races. We often see that horses are primed for handicaps, and those early races as juveniles don't mean much, other than getting the experience. His final start on turf was on his seasonal reappearance, so chances are that he needed that run as well.
Based on his two runs on the all-weather since, he could be on an attractive handicap mark. George Boughey isn't a mug; he'll know whether his horse handles grass or not. If he didn't, he'd be at the artificial surface meetings, so him coming here suggests he'll be fine.
He won at Lingfield over 6f in good style and looked well handicapped. His run last time out was a solid effort, but the extra furlong appeared to stretch his stamina. The drop back to 6f today is the right move, and I think he can continue his progress.
GambleAware