Rizz was busy this evening so Cairnzy has stepped in to cover tomorrows Lucky 15 bet.
Rizz will return tomorrow evening for Sundays racing.
Cairnzy's Lucky 15 Tips
More Thunder 11/4 – Newbury 3.35
This contest looks incredibly competitive, and you can make claims for many within this field. I was tempted by a few when it came to studying the form, but I'm willing to roll the dice with More Thunder in the hope he can take this step up in class in his stride.
My slight worry is that More Thunder has just about done enough to get his head infront in the contests he has won, winning by a nose and a short head in his previous two wins but at the same time, there was plenty to like about those performances and I'd rather be with him than against.
In a few of those contests, he didn't have the smoothest of runs, but when asked to go and win, he seemimgly picks up very well and has a very nice turn of foot. Furthermore, More Thunder is certainly still progressing, and there is a strong possibility that there is more to come. Although a competitive line up, you could argue the 11/4 is potentially decent value and I would be surprised if he was backed in further overnight.
Pinhole 2/1 – Newbury 1.50
The opener at Newbury on Saturday is a decent little contest despite the small field. I tried to look for a bit of value in this contest and you could argue Candleford is that play at 5/1 as he recently proved he is a horse who retains some sort of ability but I couldn't get away from Pinhole who looks to hold strong claims of following up from his win at Ascot last month.
My selection took a huge step forward from his run at Ascot in June to run out a convincing winner at the same course in July, winning by a comfortable five and a half lengths. Although sent off as an even-money favourite on that occasion in a less competitive contest, it was still hard not to be impressed with how he went about his business. Being a three-year-old, Pinhole receives 9lb from his elders, which of course boosts my selections chances further. Colin Keane takes the ride, and this three-year-old should have too much against a more exposed field with his eyes surely set on bigger races than this in the future.
Los Angeles 4/5 – Curragh 3.27
My third selection is not the most exciting of prices but I'm confident in the chances of Los Angeles bouncing back to form after a disappointing run at Royal Ascot recently in the Prince Of Wales Stakes.
My selections form is head and shoulders above anything else within this field, being a winner of the 2024 Irish Derby, third in the Arc, and a proven Group winner throughout his career. 4/5 probably is probably a tad short, especially on the back of a disappointing run, but course form means a lot in this game, and Los Angeles ticks that box being three from three when running at the Curragh.
J P Murtagh's Zahrann is the obvious danger, arriving here on the back of a good second at Ascot in a Group 2 contest. Although ultra consistent and progressive, I still feel he has a bit to find with Los Angeles in regards to the form book.
Absurde 7/4 – Curragh 4.37
I was initially tempted by the O'Brien and Ryan Moore combo who run Puppet Master but I think you can take the younger horse on in this contest and I've opted for the more experienced Willie Mullins runner in Absurde.
Puppet Master arrives here on the back of a disappointing run at this venue in June in a Group 1 contest where he looked a bit out of his depth, so be it in a really competitive Irish Derby. This is somewhat calmer waters for O'Brien's youngster, but he has the stamina to prove over this longer trip, and I think Absurde is the safer bet given his proven stamina and form over this particular trip.
My selection brings good form to the table also, finishing second behind Al Qareem at York with El Cordobes back in third. Al Qareem has since boosted the form when following up in a Group 3 contest at York last month, while El Cordobes has also boosted the form by winning both the Prince Of Wales Stakes at Ascot and a Grade 1 contest in Saratoga.
Saturday's Lucky 15 bet is advised as a straight win due to the odds on my selections being on the shorter side.
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