The EW treble on Day 4 was horrendous, and I was expecting a lot more.
Babouche was far too keen in her race and was eventually tailed off.
Falakeyah was also very keen on her race. Jim Crowley decided to ignore that and raced the pacesetters for the other horses, and she went out like a light.
Zahrann was green as grass and probably should have won. I think this is a very good horse and I will be backing him in the future.
Treanmor 6/4 – Ascot 2.30 (Chesham Stakes Listed Race)
I have probably spent too much time studying this race, but I did want to try to take on the top of the market. After trying, I think the Godolphin horse, Treanmor, is the most likely winner.
Charlie Appleby has had a stinker of a week so far, with many of his horses running well below par. Despite the form of the trainer, I think the stable really likes this horse. He was an expensive purchase as a yearling, fetching 2,000,000 Euros. When horses like this have huge prices attached to them, I think a lot of the time, they can be fairly average and never achieve what was expected from them. It's hard to tell what will happen with Treanmor as he has only raced once, but he was smashed in the market for that race at Newmarket. He was sent off as the 30/100F, and won by 4L. I don't think the horses he beat are particularly good, but whenever a major yard has a horse backed in, like defeat is out of the question, they know they have something special.
Charlie won the Newmarket race that Treanmor won with Ancient Truth in 2024. That horse went on to win three in a row and finished second in the Dewhurst behind Shadow Of Light, who in turn was third in the 2000 Guineas.
As far as Chesham's go, I think this is a fairly shoddy turnout. The Ballydoyle horse doesn't look like the usual star horse that they send here, and the others in behind don't have the ‘world-beater' appeal. Humidity's debut run has worked out well, so it's probably the smart guy's EW bet to nothing if he were to place. Thesecretadversary put in a good performance on debut, but the horse he was beaten by (Italy) could have easily turned up to this race, so given the fact that he hasn't, suggests Moments Of Joy is better.
Sallaal 8/1 (5pl) – Ascot 5.35 (Golden Gates Stakes Handicap)
This race looks very tough on paper, as I think any of the top horses towards the top of the market could win this. I think it will best to focus on those at the head of the market, as I don't think anything down the field look too appealing.
Sallal was my tentative fancy, and it's definitely not based on the form he has shown so far.
He won a weak race at Hamilton, in a race which was run at a very slow gallop. He was impressive in the end and showed a good turn of foot inside the final furlong to put the race to bed, but he'll have to improve. I think the improvement required is definitely doable as his pedigree is top drawer. He is by Frankel and out of a mare who has produced the likes of Benbatl and Elmalka, and a few others.
The pedigree suggests a step up in trip will suit, and a mark of 97 doesn't look too daunting.
Wild Waves 5/1 (3pl) -Ascot 6.10 (Queen Alexandra Stakes)
I really don't like this race, especially with the favourite being as short as he is. I think at the prices, you've got to take him on if you're having a bet.
The jumps yards, mostly the Irish ones, have dominated this race in recent years. This is a race over 2m 4f, so the jump horses relish the conditions, and the flat horses usually don't have the stamina.
I'll keep it short and simple. Wild Waves is shorter in the market than I was hoping, but he might have been tipped up elsewhere, or connections fancy their chances. He looked like a slow boat last year and was unlucky in the Melrose at York to finish fourth over 1m 6f. He was staying on that day, and wasn't a million miles behind in the St Leger. He is a decent animal on his day, and this trip might be what he's wanted all along, and possibly a hurdle.
Treble odds: 134/1
GambleAware