The final Group 1 for Royal Ascot is the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes.
Ascot 3.40 – Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes Group 1
Even though this is the final Group 1 of the week, it definitely looks like the most open Group 1 we've had all week.
I think you can say the horses towards the head of the market have a great chance, but the ones that are priced higher are dark horses and can cause an upset.
Lazzat is the current market favourite, and it's hard to argue why he is sitting in that position. I am a huge fan of Lazzat, ever since I caught him winning a Group 1 at Deauville over 6.5F. He smashed that field like they were handicappers, and he was one of the best horses in the world at that trip. The British horses who went over saw how good he is, and he produced an RPR of 124 that day, beating Group 1 winner Mill Stream in the process. Since that maiden Group 1 win, he has finished second over the extended 7f in Australia behind Lake Forest. Then he went to Hong Kong over a mile, and that didn't suit him. This year, he has returned in decent form, winning second time out in a Listed race, winning with ease. He didn't beat much at Chantilly last time out, but it was a nice start to the season. My main concern is the good to firm ground he'll encounter today, as it will be much different to what he has faced in France.
Japan have sent over an interesting candidate. I don't know anything about Japanese racing, but he looks very good. He was second last time out to the highest rated sprinter in the world, so if that's to go off anything, he is surely going to run a big race. Japanese horses relish rapid ground, so it's hard to see why he isn't slightly shorter in the market.
The British horses are headed by Inisherin, who improved for the drop to sprinting last year. He won at Royal Ascot last year, winning the Commonwealth Cup by 2.25L. That performance twelve months ago was hugely impressive, but he hasn't shown that level of form since, until arguably last time out. Racing Post have rated his performance the same rating as the Commonwealth Cup victory, which bodes well for his efforts today. Kevin Ryan said he wasn't 100% for the run at York, so it was a great prep.
Ryan Moore is riding Storm Boy, who was a solid sprinter in Australia. Aidan O'Brien has acquired him, and this race would have been the target for a long time. I think you have to forgive him for his lacklustre efforts last time. Aidan was vocal about his chances last time around and said he had not trained at all prior to the run. If he is close to 100%, he is another horse with a solid chance.
At bigger prices, I think you have to give a chance to the horses who will be staying on strongly. These include Annaf, Grand Grey, Great Generation and even Nighteyes, who is 66/1.
GambleAware