Day 4 of the Lucky 15 bet at Royal Ascot was actually not too bad.
Arizona Blaze and Oolong Poobong were both placed, and Ardrestia was a winner, returning a solid profit of +£45 if you were backing it as a 50p EW Lucky 15.
Advised as an each-way Lucky 15.
Humidity 9/2 (3pl) – Ascot 2.30 (Chesham Stakes Listed Race)
Humidity was a winner on debut at Newbury. These types of races are normally strongly contested and produce plenty of winners. This is also the case with the race Humidity won.
There have been multiple winners from the race, so it makes his short-head win look much better than it actually was. Given that he wasn't too strong in the market on debut, it leaves the impression that there was more to come.
His pedigree gives confidence that the step up in trip will suit. He is a full-brother to the 2022 winner Holloway Boy, who won this race on debut.
Great Generation 25/1 (4pl) – Ascot 3.40 (Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes Group 1)
For the main race of Saturday, I fancy one at a decent price. Great Generation was the horse who caught my attention, and I did think she would be bigger than she is.
The sprinting division in the UK and Ireland isn't great, and I think if you were to run this race ten times, you'd probably get a different winner on at least seven or eight times. In sprint races, it all depends on how quickly they go, how well they break from the stalls and getting the gaps at the right time. Given how well we saw Time For Sandals win the Commonwealth Cup at big odds, I'd decided to go for a similar tactic. The tactic isn't backing an outsider, but going for a horse who has been running over further, and will appreciate a stiff, well-run 6f.
At the time of watching Great Generation's win last time out, I thought it was a nothing race. I had Cathedral in the race, who was carrying a lot less weight, but watching it back, it was impressive. Great Generation was carrying a penalty for the race and was conceding weight all round. She was settled in last place, but travelled like a very quick horse and weaved her way through to win in good style. The form of the race has turned out to be decent. The runner-up, third-placed and sixth-placed horses have won since.
We have seen horses win this race by staying on at the finish in recent years. I'm hoping for another.
Yah Mo Be There 28/1 (4pl) – Ascot 4.20 (Jersey Stakes Group 3)
It pains me to go against Remmooz, whom I backed on debut, but he is far too short based on what he has produced. I think you have some solid form options against him, but I will be having a punt at the prices with Yah Mo Be There.
I get the feeling Richard Spencer has always rated this lad highly. He has been pitched into some big races, including the Greenham and the 2000 Guineas. I think you can severely mark up his run in the Guineas, even though he was 8th/11. If you watch the replay, he was still going very well with a couple of furlongs to travel; the only two horses not off the bridle were the winner and the runner-up. Turns out the runner-up is a bit of a monster. Jamie Spencer was cool as ever at the rear of the field and was riding him to get the trip. In hindsight, he wasn't going to get the trip, but he was going as well as the first two prior to getting tired.
I think a drop in trip and a real pace to aim at could see him delivered late and hit the frame at the very least.
Korker 33/1 (6pl) – Ascot 5.00 (Wokingham Stakes Heritage Handicap)
This is a total minefield, and any horse on their day could walk away victorious. There few obviously a few I could have picked. The horse I landed on was Korker.
It's annoying for connections that Korker is such a consistent horse. By that I mean, his handicap mark very rarely drops too low as he just runs well and places in big races on a consistent basis. The main problem for him is that he is a slow starter, and that is something you can't afford to do in sprint races, as in the blink of an eye, the race is over.
Even though he has a problem leaving the stalls in good style, I think the race will be run to suit and he can definitely hit the frame. He was third in the Ayr Gold Cup last year, which is fantastic form for a big field handicap. He has been consistent as ever this term, with two third-placed efforts in his last two runs. He gets the young Jack Nicholls in the saddle, which means he will be carrying 7lbs less than he usually would. It's not a great surprise seeing the odds he is, as there are far more sexy profile horses, but I think he is a player at big odds.
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