The same comments from the each-way thread can be applied to the Lucky 15.
I like to try outside-the-box angles for the big meetings, as you can often find value at bigger prices. Unfortunately, the ones I have gone for haven't rewarded me, and the favourites have dominated the festival.
Lil Brother was a huge outsider in the opener, ran okay, but wasn't good enough to get involved. In hindsight, nothing was beating that winner.
Boatswain didn't see the trip out as strong as I hoped in his race. Missed the places by a few.
Hollys Graces was poor.
Arabian Force was poorly positioned, and I don't think we saw the level he can produce. He was in last place, but the race unfolded miles ahead of him. I think we could see him over further, and I do think he is a Class 1 horse.
Advised as an each-way Lucky 15.
Arizona Blaze 28/1 (5pl) – Ascot 3.05 (Commonwealth Cup Group 1)
At the prices, I do think Arizona Blaze has a much better chance than the odds suggest.
We know that he handles the track after he was third over 5f in a juvenile race last year, which was better than it was. He ran a solo race near the stands rail, and had to the the donkey work all by himself, effectively running a breeze-up.
His form is slightly behind Babouche and Whistlejacket based on last year's finishes behind that pair, but he has returned to the track in good form this year. He won on seasonal reappearance in good style, producing an RPR of 116. He has also won a Group 3 in France over 5.5f.
On his day, he is a very talented sprinter, and it all depends on how the race unfolds and what version of Arizona Blaze turns up. He nearly managed to win a Group 1 at the Breeders' Cup last year, but that was too short for him.
French Duke 13/2 (5pl) – Ascot 3.40 (Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes Handicap)
Despite the fact that I believe this race isn't that strong, it was still a hard decision on who to pick towards the top of the market. I liked both Wathnan horses, as well as Hand Of God. In the end, I've gone with French Duke who is the pick of James Doyle.
It must have been a very tough pick for James, who many would have thought he'd have picked Almosh'her after a battle-hardened performance at York. Roger Varian must have had a very strong input in the decision of James, as French Duke has not raced in 286 days, so he hasn't had the ideal prep. The break isn't as concerning as it normally would be, as Roger can ready a horse from a long layoff and has done so in the past at Royal Ascot.
French Duke was a progressive horse last year, finishing sixth at last year's Royal Ascot meeting before winning a solid race at Goodwood. On his final start, he was runner-up to a smart William Haggas horse, but I don't think he enjoyed the slow ground that day. The return to a fast surface should be much better suited for him, as he looked very good at Goodwood on faster ground.
He has been gelded since we last saw him, which should help him as he had been keen throughout his races. I think he will stay further than today's trip, so I will be expecting James to sit towards the back of the field and have a go down the outside when turning for home.
| Royal Ascot Day 4 free bets | Offer | Free bet link |
|---|---|---|
| AKbets | 25% Lucky 15 Boost up to £100 | Get the offer >> |
| Puntit | £20 in free bets | Get the offer >> |
| Betvictor | £50 in free bets | Get the offer >> |
| Star Sports Bet | £20 in free bets | Get the offer >> |
Oolong Poobong 12/1 (6pl) – Ascot 5.00 (Sandringham Stakes Fillies' Handicap)
Edward Bethell is one of my favourite trainers; he has started to get recognition over the last twelve months or so, and I think he doesn't waste ammunition when coming to the big meetings.
This week he has had one runner, that was Regional. His sole runner was third and ran very well. Last year, he managed to get his first Royal Ascot victory in the Britannia Stakes, which is the male version of this race. He won it with Mickley, who had a very similar profile to Oolong Poobong, so it looks like history might be repeating itself.
This filly has had two starts this year, but was very impressive at Haydock last time out. She won a decent handicap for the grade in good style and wasn't stopping at the line, so the mile will be fine for her. The race she won was on the same day that Mickley had won his race before coming to Ascot, so it looks like they've had this race as a target for a very long time.
She is drawn high, which looks to be the place to be, and I am quietly confident in a big run.
Adrestia 15/2 (6pl) – Ascot 6.10 (Palace Of Holyroodhouse Stakes Handicap)
I'll keep this one short and simple.
Adrestia is a horse I've always rated very highly. She was a smart juvenile, but didn't get to showcase her talents to the maximum. I tipped her up when she was the favourite for a Newbury Listed race, and she was fairly awful that day, which was a big surprise.
Prior to her bombing out in the Listed race, she had been very impressive on her two starts before that. I think the way she won at Sandown was very taking. She was hampered badly at the start, had to settle towards the rear and didn't get the clearest of passages, but shot clear to win comfortably. After that, I thought she was going to become a Class 1 filly.
This year, she has had one run at Windsor. She wasn't fancied in the market to go well, but shaped very nicely to finish third behind an in-form sprinter. This race has evidently been the target, and getting Oisin in the saddle is a great booking.
GambleAware