Day 1 for the ‘main' thread selections didn't exactly go to plan.
Lead Artist was very poor, and probably wasn't suited by the lacklustre gallop that was on offer. I'd have never picked the winner in a month of Sundays, so it is what it is.
Mgheera was restless at the start. She lost a shoe and wasn't given too many attempts to go into the stalls. To make matters even worse, the horse who won the race was convincingly beaten by Mgheera last time out.
Spicy Marg 9/1 (1pt EW, 4pl) – Ascot 2.30 (Queen Mary Stakes Group 2)
To start off Day 2, we have the Queen Mary Stakes, which is a 5f sprint contested by two-year-old fillies.
This race is a total minefield, so if you manage to find the winner, I tip my hat to you. I think you can give a shout to at least ten of the twenty-five who line up, but the one I'm taking a chance on is Spicy Marg.
With everything that has happened to Kieran Shoemark in recent months, it would be fantastic to see him land a Royal Ascot winner. Kieran is on board my fancy, and I think if she can improve from her debut run, she will be fighting out for the win. It's hard to say whether she is drawn on the right side of the track. I am ignoring draw bias and pace bias, as it always goes wrong for me.
I was taken by her debut effort at Newmarket. Though it was only a four-runner race, she put up a seriously quick time for an inexperienced horse, and I think that will put her in good stead. The form is decent, with the runner-up being behind Harry's Girl the time before, who was second in a Listed event last time out. I think the fact that she encountered the dip at Newmarket and handled it well will be a great bit of experience. She looks to have a big stride and showed a solid turn of foot. She is an each-way price, so that's the route I'll go down.
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Shackleton 4/1 (1pt) – Ascot 3.05 (Queen's Vase Group 2)
If there was going to be a fairly big-priced winner for today, outside of the handicaps, this could be the race.
I don't think the horses who are towards the top of the market have outstanding claims, my selection included. However, I did think Shackleton looked in desperate need of his return run, and the step up in trip will suit.
I am no physical horse expert, but he looked to be carrying a fair bit of timber at the Curragh last time out. He wasn't weak in the market, but he looked on the plump side. Not only that, he looked like he lacked gears against horses over shorter trips. There were positives to take out of the race. He looked like he was going to finish in last, tailed off, but he kept plugging away, and that will have made him fit for today's race.
Aidan has won this race numerous times in the last twenty or so years, so he knows the score.
The Godolphin horse is the one to beat in terms of official ratings, but the form of the Dante flopped massively in the Derby. The French horse comes over with solid form and has a staying pedigree, so he has to be respected as well.
Cinderella's Dream 7/4 (3pt) – Ascot 3.40 (Duke Of Cambridge Stakes Group 2)
I don't know whether being too confident in Cinderella's Dream is foolish of me or not. Time will tell, but I think she has a very solid chance of winning this.
I backed against Cinderella's Dream last time out, and I was very wrong for doing so. I was gobsmacked by how impressive Charlie Appleby's filly was at Newmarket when beating a solid field. I tipped Running Lion against her that day; my selection was poor, but the winner was mindblowingly good.
Running Lion won this race last year and ran better last time out, so she has to be respected again. Knowing my luck, backing against her with the horse who beat me will come back to bite me.
The way that Cinderella's Dream travelled through the Newmarket race and then powered clear made her look like she was streets ahead. Today, she faces new opposition. Fallen Angel is a very solid horse, so she has to be respected, but I think you'll need to be special to beat my fancy.
GambleAware