Both of Sunday's selections were very poor, which included another poor ride from Colin Keane on Byblos.
I don't understand why he has decided to whip the horse in his right hand when the horse's only chance of getting through was up the rail on his right-hand side. He whipped the horse, which then jolted to the left due to the stick being in that hand, resulting in him bumping into another horse quite strongly. That halted his progression and took his momentum away, and after that, he didn't have much of a chance. The horse was going very smoothly up until that point, which makes it all the more frustrating.
The Man had no excuses. He was boxed in early, but got the gaps at the right time, but didn't pick up in the manner I would have expected.
Tafsir 8/1 (1pt) – Hamilton 3.33
It really does pain me that I am going to back another horse ridden by Paul Mulrennan, as he has done me dirty more than enough times. However, Tafsir is a decent horse around Hamilton and handles soft ground very well, so on an okay handicap mark, I believe he is worth a chance.
There are good horses in this race, and it has made it a good handicap for a Monday. The bottom weight is in good form, but ran yesterday, so I don't think he'll run. The two unexposed horses from Karl Burke and Harry Eustace's yard have to be respected, as they are from good yards. I believe the risk-to-reward isn't good enough for backing Chico Magnifica. He is a course and distance winner, but he has fourth-placed finishes on either side of the win, and he was very poor last time out when being the 4/6F.
That left me thinking Tafsir was worth a chance. He hasn't won a race since winning at Hamilton virtually one year ago in this race, which was a hard-fought win off a handicap mark of 73. He is 2lb heavier for this race this year, which makes life difficult, as he hasn't managed to win off this mark throughout the year. With question marks around the main horses and odds of 8/1, he is worth parting with a small amount of money.
Paul Mulrennan doesn't ride him too often anymore, but the last time he was on board saw him finish second and record his best RPR of the season off today's handicap mark on good ground. His best performances have come with juice in the ground, so maybe the slower ground conditions will be enough for him to get back in the winner's enclosure and win this race in back-to-back years.
A lot of Jim Goldie horses are planned out months in advance, and they get targeted at certain races. Considering they are coming back to this race, it suggests this has been the plan for a little while and with Paul Mulrennan back in the saddle, it's a positive sign.
GambleAware