Sunday's main runner, Only Spoofing, was backed in the market. Despite that, he didn't run particularly well.
I don't know why, but I never got a good feeling from the get-go on him. He went to the front, but didn't get an easy lead, and eventually got tired, which saw him fold like a deckchair.
The Lucky 15 bets on the weekend were average. Both days we secured profit, with Sunday's bet having two placed efforts and a 15/2 winner, who won at 11/1 (if you got B.O.G).
Culligran 6/1 (0.5pt EW, 3pl) – Newton Abbot 3.50
I tipped up Culligran when he was a strong favourite at Cartmel a couple of weeks ago. He was given a strange ride that day, so I am going to give him another try.
Whether or not he is a better chaser than a hurdler, I'm not so sure. We have a very small sample size from his chase efforts, so it's going to appear like he is better over the larger obstacles. However, he is a winner over hurdles. It might be the case that he is in better form this year, and the fact that they are returning to hurdles suggests they share the same opinion as me.
Three horses turn up for this race in decent order. Two have won, and another has been a runner-up, so it looks like a competitive race on paper. I don't think it's as strong as it looks, with the form of the wins not looking too strong, and they are now on relatively tough marks based on how they managed to win their races.
Culligran is a course winner and has plenty of pace. He showed his high cruising speed at the lower levels at Cartmel, where he cantered into contention, but going the widest throughout on soft ground, found his stamina out over 2m 5f. The drop back to 2m 3f on good ground will be fine for him, and from a relatively low weight, I thought he was a big player.
Spioradalta 7/1 (0.5pt EW, 3pl) – Ayr 4.40
In my opinion, this race won't take too much to win. There are many older horses in this, and we know what they are all about. The only three-year-old in the race has very average form and was comfortably beaten in a maiden, so I am happy to oppose him on handicap debut. I think that horse will be shorter in the market than he should be, as he is going up 3f for his handicap debut and is from a shrewd yard.
Sprioradalta has been competing at a higher level for most part of this season. He has been competitive in Class 4 races on every start in that grade. He was 4th/11, 6th/20 and 3rd/8, and the last time he ran in a Class 5 he managed to win. That win came off a mark of 68, which is higher than today's rating. On paper, he is running off a mark of 71 today, but Rhys Elliott takes off 5lbs. Based on those numbers, he has to be in with a very solid chance of winning a second time this year.
GambleAware