Sunday was a fruitful day on the thread, as both selections managed to win.
It was a great day for Colin Keane and Ger Lyons as they managed to get three winners on the day, two of them were advised on the main thread or the Lucky 15 thread, and Babouche ran out a very ready winner, beating Whistlejacket.
The runner-up is definitely better on soft ground, which I mentioned in the write-up, so I wouldn't give up on him just yet if you were on him yesterday, just wait for the rain to land.
My each-way selection on Sunday managed to break her maiden tag. She didn't get a clear run at Leopardstown in the Guineas Trial, and at points, it looked like the same was going to happen at Naas. Thankfully, Jamie Powell got the gaps at the right time and managed to chase down the favourite and win with a bit to spare.
Kings Merchant 5/1 (1pt) – Carlisle 3.30
I'm fairly certain that I tipped up Kings Merchant last August when he was runner-up to Fortamour in a Class 3 contest at Ripon. Since then, he won on his next start (typical), and then finished 5th in the Ayr Silver Cup. He has returned to the track in okay, but not outstanding form, but his mark has dropped back down to his last winning rating and with two runs under his belt, he can cash in.
Connections must have been expecting a lot more from his two runs in 2025, as he has gone off as the favourite on both occasions, but has flattered to deceive. However, this race is not that deep in comparison to what he was competing against towards the back end of last year, so I think today is the day to jump back on him.
Given how easily he won off this mark last time out, you'd be a fool to ignore him today. He didn't win by a big margin at Thirsk, but he had to wait for a gap for a long time, and eventually managed to win, and do it quite cosily.
Edward Bethell's usual rider, Callum Rodriguez, has decided to go to Redcar, so that would normally ring alarm bells, but he is riding a juvenile newcomer, and I get the impression that horse could be a rocket, so I wouldn't read into him missing the ride on Kings Merchant too much.
Twisting Physics 3/1 (1pt) – Carlisle 4.30
Carrying the four-year-old penalty in a novice race against younger horses should make this a tough task for Twisting Physics, but it's definitely not mission impossible.
We see this quite a lot with Saeed Bin Suroor runners, who runs the older horses with big weights against the younger horses, but they often acquit themselves quite well. This is a Paul & Olive Cole horse, but it's their first runner at this track, and given how far they are travelling for this one horse, it suggests they fancy their chances a lot.
He is a previous winner, so we know he has the ability to win races like this, but I think the maturity, physically and mentally is the main reason why this horse can combat the huge weight. We see the older horses demolish the younger horses whenever they meet at this time of year, and that's because they are more mature, and the younger ones who don't have much experience, aren't ready enough.
Twisting Physics has a superb pedigree, being by Dubawi and out of a Dansili Mare who has produced Tropbeau, who was a Group 2 winning sprinter for A Fabre.
The form of his win doesn't look terrible, as the third-placed horse (Classic Encounter) has since won and been placed in two tough Newmarket handicaps.
Blazing 4/1 (1pt) – Redcar 1.45
The horse I mentioned before that Callum Rodriguez is riding is Blazing in this opener at Redcar, and I think he is worth a chance on debut.
I am not normally one to bet on a horse on debut on the flat, as there are far too many variables to get too heavily involved, but the pedigree of this lad suggests he will be useful, and with Callum deciding to come to Redcar, mainly for this ride, gives me optimism.
This horse is closely related to Ornate, who was a quality sprinter from a few years ago, as well as a Group 2 winning sprinter from the Haggas stable. So, if he were to follow in their footsteps, this debut race will be a breeze.
GambleAware