Celandine got done in a head bob at Chester, losing in a photo finish.
She didn't go to the front, and the Chester specialist, Roman Dragon, got to the front and dictated. She looked in with a real chance turning for home when she picked up nicely, but the winner kept finding and got his head down on the line at the right time.
Astral Sea was very weak in the market, and that means for a large percentage of the time that they will not run a great race. She went through the race okay, but looked in need of the run, as the market pointed.
Radio Star 5/1 (1pt) – Ripon 3.10
I had this race between Tiva and Radio Star. I've decided to go with the latter, not only because she is bigger odds, but I think the rain, which looks likely to fall, will suit her more.
Tiva's last run comments said she was “denied a clear run” from two furlongs from home. That definitely wasn't the case; she could have up the rail, which she eventually did, and was beaten fair and square. I think she is on a decent handicap mark, so if she were to win and beat me, it wouldn't be a surprise at all.
Ollie Sangster hasn't hit the heights that he managed last year, and started the season off quite slowly, but the stable form has started to pick up recently. His form at the Yorkshire tracks is very strong. This is his first runner at Ripon, but his strike rate at the likes of Catterick is 50%, Doncaster 25% and Wetherby 100% (all small sample sizes).
Radio Star sits on a handicap mark of 68, which makes him competitive. She went close at Doncaster off a 1lb higher mark, where he got into the clear too late. She is a horse who takes a while to hit top gear, so not getting a clear run seriously scuppers her chances. Last time out I am willing to ignore as that was at Chester, which is a marmite track for horses, they either love it or hate it.
Precious Spartan 4/1 (1pt) – Ripon 4.40
I think many punters will try to stay clear of Precious Spartan on the back of his defeat at York. Prior to that, he was 2/2 at Ripon this season, and if he came to this race on the back of those wins, he'd be much shorter.
Even though he is now 11lbs higher in the ratings than he was when completing the course and distance double, I think returning here will be better suited. Given how easily he won off lower marks at this venue, he can definitely win again. Last time he contested a Class 4 race, whereas he was winning in Class 6s, so it's not a shock to see him struggle. Today, he drops back into a Class 6 race, against opposition who don't look the strongest.
Patrick Neville is better known as a jumps trainer, but his strike rate on the flat over the last five years is over 20%. He has clearly transformed this horse since he moved from Nigel Tinkler's yard, so there's no reason to believe his progression has stopped just yet.
Takteek 9/4 (2pt) – Carlisle 6.05
James Owen is one of the best trainers in the country for transforming a horse's form. He has done this on multiple occasions in his short career to date, and I can't see why Takteek isn't another to be on that list.
Takteek hasn't set the world on fire with his four career runs to date, but he was trained previously by Charlie Fellowes. No disrespect to Charlie, but his standards this year have been very low. I rate Charlie as a trainer, but for whatever reason, this season has been disappointing. So with that said, it's not a surprise that Takteek hasn't run great on his runs this year. Based on that, I think there is a much better horse in there, and James Owen will be able to capitalise on a low handicap mark.
James has wasted no time in putting this horse up in trip. Takteek now tackles a mile for the first time, which is two furlongs further than he has been over. The pedigree gives plenty of hope that this is the right move, with the Dam staying further than a mile.
GambleAware