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In the very early hours of Tuesday morning the 164th running of the Melbourne Cup will be taking place at Flemington. If you are getting up for the race, set your alarm for just before 4.00 AM as that is when it all kicks off.
You might question why such a prestigious race is run on a Tuesday. It is because this day in Victoria, Australia, is a public holiday. Whether that is anything to do with the race taking place I'm not 100% sure, but this race is a key part of the Melbourne and Australian sporting culture and has run every year since 1861 except for both of the World Wars.
The Melbourne Cup is run over 2m is the richest two-mile handicap in the world, and is one of the richest races which is on turf, so it's no surprise that we see horses turning up from all around the globe to try and take some of that prize money home with them, as well as getting the incredible win on their CV.
Even if you don't manage to win this prestigious race, finishing the places is still very lucrative. This year the total prize money for the race is $8.71 million (Aussie dollars) which is a $150,000 increase from last year…maybe the UK races should make note. Last year saw the runner-up got $1.1 million, third $550,000 and lower throughout. 85% goes to the owners, 10% to the trainer and 5% to the jockey.
Recent history of the race
From 1993 onwards is when we started to see a trend of foreign horses coming over to Melbourne for their great race. Dermot Weld managed to win this race in 1993 with Vintage Crop and that opened the floodgates for many foreign horses to try and plunder one of Australia's biggest prizes.
Dermot managed to win his second Melbourne Cup in 2002 with Media Puzzle and since then we've had French, German, Japanese, British and Irish winners as well as the obvious Australian trained winners, so it's not as heavily dominated by the lads down under like it used to be.
Since 2017 the Europe lot has managed to come over and win this race three times, with Joseph O'Brien being the man doing the heavy carrying with his two wins with Rekindling and Twilight Payment. The last win on Twilight Payment shows that the older horses have a great chance of winning this, as he was an 8-year-old and last year's winner, Without A Fight was a 7-year-old.
The race is open to 3-year-olds but hasn't seen a winner of that age since 1941 when Skipton managed to win for trainer J Fryer. It's interesting that the younger horses have struggled in this race, but this year Aidan O'Brien's 3-year-old runner, Jan Brueghel, was touted for success off a low weight, though he didn't get the opportunity to run due to the vets in Australia deeming him not fit to run, despite having plenty of time. The removal of Jan Brueghel has been the main talking point for this year's race, which is a shame as we still have plenty of quality horses turning up, but when a horse is withdrawn for reasons we're not too sure of, it raises eyebrows.
The UK and Irish runners
Vauban
Willie Mullins has sent two over, and despite him being known for his jumps training ability, he is still capable of being at the top when it comes to the flat as well.
Vauban is the ride of William Buick and he gave Rizzel a nice winner earlier in the season at York when winning a Group 2, beating Al Nayyir who was making his stable debut for Tom Clover. The form doesn't look great from that race, but Vauban ran a valiant race in defeat at the Curragh last time out in the Irish St Leger to finish behind Kyprios who is definitely in the debate for being the greatest staying horse we've ever seen.
He is a good horse on his day, but his stamina was coming towards the end at York as the runner-up was closing him down with every yard. He is best seen to effect with a strong gallop to aim as, as he has a high cruising speed, but if it was to be tactical then I think he will struggle as his turn of foot on the back of a slow gallop isn't ideal for him. He is drawn in Stall 11, so is in a decent position to get a prominent position, to ensure the front runners don't nick too many lengths off him.
Absurde
The second of the Mullins runners is Absurde who gave this race a good crack last year when he finished 7th, 5.5L behind Without A Fight. He was fancied to go well in this race 12 months ago, going off at odds of 8/1, after being strongly fancied in the UK and Irish markets for weeks before.
Last year he won the Sky Bet Ebor at York off a mark of 104, which was definitely still on the low side for him, but he was given a cracking ride for Dettori. In hindsight, the form looks rock-solid from that Ebor race as he beat Sweet William, who is definitely in contention for being the second-best staying horse in the UK or Ireland, behind Kyprios.
However, his form of last year was closely matched with Vauban as he finished 2nd/16 at Royal Ascot 7.5L behind Vauban, but I think the winner was favourably treated by the way the race panned out, also by having a much better position turning for home, so I think they are much closely matched than the bare form.
This year he has run over hurdles, including a win at Cheltenham in the County Hurdle. However, the runs over hurdles mean zilch when it comes to a race like this, but the latter of his two runs on the flat suggests he is still a dangerous horse for this race. He needed the run at the Curragh, but made amends when winning in good style in a Listed race at Chester, beating Caius Chorister, who is not a bad horse on his day, shown by finishing 4th to Kyprios at Ascot on Champions Day.
I think the jockey booking of Kerin McEvoy is a great one made by the Mullins yard. Kerin is a brilliant jockey on these shores and is a 3x Melbourne Cup winning jockey, so having his experience is one to be very excited about. He has a good draw in 7, but he was drawn in Stall 8 last year and faded in the final furlongs, so his stamina is still a question mark.
Onesmoothoperator
Brian Ellison has had a great season over the jumps and the flat, and he'll be coming to Melbourne full of confidence given Onesmoothoperator managed to win the Geelong Cup on his prep run for today's race just 13 days ago. That was his best performance on turf, and it was a bit of a surprise for us back home as he has been kept to the AW for the majority of his career, but the way he won at Geelong was visually impressive and gives him a squeak in today's race.
In theory, he should be outclassed as he struggled to compete in previous attempts at the top level. Even with this being a handicap, I think he will not be good enough as he couldn't even win the Ebor this year, when finishing 7th/20. That was a solid attempt, and it's not easy to win the Ebor, especially this year which was competitive and we've seen the form franked on many occasions since, but the Melbourne Cup is the Ebor on steroids in comparison, so I think he will fall short, but will run a courageous race.
Sea King
Harry Eustace has hit the jackpot by obtaining Sea King in recent months as he is getting a Melbourne Cup runner already established and he's not had to do too much of the work. Sea King was previously trained by Sir Mark Prescott and he has had a solid season with his last run for Mark coming in the Ebor, finishing one spot ahead of Onesmoothoperator.
As I mentioned, the Ebor form has worked out well as the Ellison horse has grabbed a win in Australia, but so has Sea King as he managed to win a Group 3 in an even easier fashion. He was held up, went forward closer to home and disputed the lead 3f ut, and when Declan Bates let him go, he shot clear and won by a widening 3.75L, beating some solid horses.
Though I've just said Onesmoothoperator shouldn't be good enough as he didn't win the Ebor, I think this horse is slightly different as he is totally unexposed at the trip, having never raced beyond 1m 6f. I'm not saying he's got a fantastic chance, as we don't know how he'll run over this new trip, and he seems to have a fair bit of pace, shown by winning over 1m 4f last time out, but he's an interesting runner for owner's who bought him specifically for this race.
Noticeable Australian runners
Buckaroo
Many of you will clock this name and think I recognise him, and that's because you do as he was previously trained by the two time Melbourne Cup winner, Joseph O'Brien, and is now with the Australian maestro Chris Waller.
This horse hasn't been given the friendliest of draws, drawn in the carpark in stall 21 which will make life very difficult to get across to grab a good position, and I'd say that is the biggest concern for Buckaroo despite him not having the experience over today's trip. In terms of the two miles, he has never raced this far and has done his majority of racing over much shorter, but since moving to Chris Waller he has done very well over the middle distances over 10f and 12f, with some cracking runs, with the form being heavily franked since.
His head finish in second place to Via Sistina has been boosted enormously as that mare went on and won the recent Cox Plate by a landslide. He then went to Caulfield and finished behind another ex-Irish trained horse, Duke De Sessa in the big-money Group 1 on his first attempt over 12f. The pedigree of this horse would suggest two miles is definitely in his scope as he is related to Kihavah who finished second in this year's Ebor, and in terms of pedigree, this horse has a stronger staying pedigree.
I think he has a very good chance of winning this race, but it all depends on how the race starts for him. If he breaks slowly and they don't go fast on the sharp end, then it could be a very painful viewing. At the time of writing, he is one of the more fancied runners.
Interpretation
A horse who definitely needs a mention at bigger odds is Interpretation trained by Ciaron Maher. This horse has a big chance of winning this race if he gets the breaks. Last year he finished 6th/23 and was severely unlucky not to be closer, but he was a sucker for not being positioned in the best when turning for home.
This year, he gets a slightly better draw in Stall 14, which isn't ideal, but last year's winner came from Stall 17 so it can be done. Last year he was positioned towards the rear, which wasn't necessarily the problem, it was the fact that the jockey opted to go widest of all, sacrificing a lot of ground when trying to put in his challenge.
Prior to that, Interpretation was probably going the best of every runner in the race, including the winner, but by going ten horses wide, the horses ahead of him were in full flow and didn't have to stop their momentum, so in hindsight, it was a cracking effort from this horse to get as close as he did.
There are no doubts about this lad's stamina, but it's all going to come down to how the race unfolds, which is common sense in a big field race like this. If it all goes swimmingly, he's got a belting chance based on last year's brilliant effort.
There are obviously plenty of other runners who have a chance in this race, but due to the sheer size of the field, it's difficult to mention anywhere near as many runners as I'd like.
My bet for the race
I am going to stick to my guns and play EW on Interpretation who must be going close with better luck and a better-judged ride than last year. The same jockey is on board and they would've had many conversations about what to do better this year.
The horse has the stamina to get involved and has clearly been aimed at this race since he finished 6th in it last year. He gets in off a low weight of 7st 12lbs and has had a couple of really nice prep runs, including the second to Onesmoothoperator over a trip which is probably too short for him, as he was running strongly down the outside in this race last year.
Interpretation 18/1 EW (Five Places with Bet365)
