Endorsement was utterly atrocious at Leopardstown, and that has to have been an off run.
Even if he was not good enough, you'd expect him to finish a lot closer than he did. He went out like a light, and on that basis, you've got to say there was an issue for the poor performance.
North View was given a fairly shocking ride. I can't complain, as I knew that the 7lb claimer was going to be doing the steering, so you take the risk when you back a horse with an inexperienced pilot. With a better apprentice or a proper jockey, I think he goes very close.
Dance A Gig 7/2 (1pt) – Haydock 6.53
Even though I felt like Karl Burke wasn't having the same amount of success with his juveniles this year compared to his average, he's going at a 3% higher strike rate. His runner in this race has to be respected, but I think you can't take his form behind the subsequent third-placed Moulecomb runner as bulletproof. The other horses in that race haven't franked the form, and they weren't far behind.
God Given Talent could run well on his debut for Haggas, but I thought Dance A Gig was being a little overlooked for the Ralph Beckett stable.
He didn't run well at Royal Ascot, finishing last in his race, but I think you've got to give him a chance based on his other two runs. He was second in the Brocklesby at Doncaster on the opening day of the season, and was then second in a three-runner race. The winner is a 100+ rated horse, and the third was the winner of the Doncaster race and has run well in other big races.
I think this smaller field could suit Dance A Gig a lot better, and given his pedigree, I'd like to think that he can progress.
The Caltonian 9/1 (0.5pt EW, 3pl) – Newmarket 7.12
Some horses are better on one surface than the other, but The Caltonian clearly prefers the all-weather. I think you'd struggle to find a horse in training that has a 22lb difference between their ratings on turf and the all-weather.
The Caltonian is a capable sprinter on the all-weather, so it's strange to see that he has never won a race on turf in 22 attempts. However, today might be the day, as the Scottish-based yard is willing to travel to Newmarket, which is a rarity. Linda has had runners at this track before, but the last one at this venue hasn't come in the last five years.
To add to this, Oisin Murphy is booked. Whenever one of the smaller yards can acquire a jockey like Oisin, it's normally a big indicator that a good run is on the cards. Oisin would have had the pick of a few in here, but he's opted for The Caltonian, and he is 2/2 when riding for the yard in the last five years and 3/4 all-time.
GambleAware