The short-priced favourite turned out to be too good in the race up at Hamilton.
Roger Varian's horse was still well ahead of the handicapper and showed his class when beating the Class 2 field in Scotland. I felt that Rhythm Master was the horse who could potentially beat him, but he missed the places by one, finishing third.
Rhythm Master ran his usual type of race, which is why his handicap mark isn't dropping quickly. I think it is a matter of time before he finds himself winning again, but he could do without some of the southern raiders coming to spoil the party.
Thunderous Love 7/2 (2pt) – Nottingham 2.50
It would be typical to see Novello Lad come back to haunt me after I tipped him up last time out, which saw him lose by a neck. I don't think a small field six-furlong race suits him, which is why I am not going back in on him. I mentioned last week during one of the Lucky 15 threads that Johnathan Portman's yard is flying at present, so Thunder Love got my vote.
At first glance, Thunder Love doesn't look like the best handicapped horse. She only wins by small margins, with two neck wins in her last two runs. That doesn't always mean a horse isn't ahead of the handicapper. Some horses only do enough to win on the day, and given she is in brilliant form, and has won four races this year, all by small margins, backs this statement.
She started the year from a mark of 54 and is now running off a mark of 68. The yard and jockey have been very successful together this year, and I think she could land the hat-trick.
Melakaz 25/1 (0.5pt EW, 3pl, can get 25/1 most firms apart from B365) – Haydock 4.25
At big odds, Melakaz is worth siding with a few quid each way.
Robert Stephens is dual dual-licensed trainer, and does well with the small number of horses he trains. I tipped up one of his horses last year when he sent just his second runner to Haydock, and that horse won for me. Haydock is clearly a track he sends runners to if he firmly believes that they have a chance of running well. He is 1/2 at the track, with his other runner finishing as a runner-up.
Melakaz is making his return to the track from a 525-day break. To add to this, he hasn't won a race on turf, but is 5/11 on the AW, so a lot of things point towards this being a very rogue selection. But, with his record at the track being as it is, I refuse to believe he should be a 25/1 shot.
Kieran Shoemark is on board, and that is a positive booking for Robert Stephens. Kieran is 3/21 when riding for this yard, with a further three being a runner-up. He has a very solid profit of +91.33 to £1 level stakes.
Ironist 8/1 (1pt EW, 4pl) – Haydock 5.35
Another trainer who doesn't send many runners to the northern tracks is George Margarson. Over the years, he has sent a fair few runners to tracks out of the local area, but in recent years, he has changed his approach. His strike rate when bringing horses to tracks he doesn't have many runners at has gone up tremendously. This is his first runner at Haydock in quite a while, and that caught my attention.
This isn't a particularly strong race, and his runner ran well last time out. She finished in second place last time out, beaten by a well-fancied favourite, so I'd say that form is some of the best in this race. Her handicap mark isn't daunting, and if she can build on that run, she is an each-way player at the very least.
George's only runner this year north of the Midlands was a winner at Pontefract. In the last five years, he has had a winner at York from two tries (+39.00 profit) and one winner from five at Doncaster. Kieran Shoemark has been booked, so hopefully he'll have a good day.
GambleAware