It's fair to say the Racing League didn't go as planned for the three selections.
Sword was held up in last place. That was not the ideal place to be. The race unfolded from the front, and any horse trying to make up ground from the back had no chance.
Brian put in an awful performance. I'm not sure if he didn't handle the track, or if he's going backwards.
Hornsea Bay was backed into being a strong favourite for the final race at Chepstow. He was quite keen throughout and didn't look in love with the undulations of the track. He weakened inside the final furlong. He will have his day in the sun soon, maybe at York's Ebor festival.
Sax Appeal 5/1 (1pt) – Thirsk 4.13
Even though I believe Paddy The Squire is the one to beat in this race, and is available at decent odds, I don't think the race will pan out how he would like.
In small runner fields like this, I think it can be very advantageous to be the front runner. Sax Appeal looks to be the pace angle in this race, and if they let him dictate the race at the pace that Warren Fentiman wants, he could run away with this.
I've had my fingers burnt in the past when backing the best horse in the race, but then the race becomes tactical and the Johnston front-runner wins. Sax Appeal appears to be better on the all-weather, but his runs on turf haven't been that bad. He recently won a two-mile race on turf, so if they decide to go a solid pace, he will outstay them. However, he has shown he has pace over this trip, winning on the AW at this distance a couple of times.
Sax Appeal is clearly in good form at present, and with Warren Fentiman taking off 5lbs from a low weight of 8st 5lbs, he looks like an attractive bet.
Thapa VC 13/2 (0.5pt EW, 3pl) – Haydock 8.30
Jim Crowley is definitely not the force of old in the saddle, and he's not one of my favourite jockeys, but he does get on well with Thapa VC.
Mark Rimell's yard has not been firing on all cylinders this year, but Thapa VC has been running to his mark on most of his starts this year. Mark got his second winner of the season yesterday, so maybe the turn of fortune is on the way. Thapa VC was the sole winner of the season up until that point, and that came in a Class 4 race at Bath over a mile. That win came off the same mark as today, and since then he has run to a decent level, but not getting the races run to suit.
He went close in this race last year off a 6lb higher mark, so it's interesting that they are returning to Haydock with the horse being as well handicapped as he is.
My main concern is the potential lack of pace on offer. Oisin's horse is one of the main pace angles, and if they let him get loose on the front, he could be dangerous at big odds.
GambleAware