It's always frustrating when the money arrives for a horse you've tipped up, and it doesn't return a profit.
Minnie Wildes was smashed in the betting after being tipped up at 12/1, she was as short as 2/1 during the morning. The market settled, and she went off at 9/2, which is a much shorter price, but I knew my fate when she left the gates very slowly.
When the ground gets soft at Carlisle, they come across to the near side, which favours a high draw, as long as you break from the stalls on terms. Due to her missing the break, she was on the backfoot, and when she was travelling well and needing a gap, she was behind a wall of horses.
Best Adventure 4/1 (2pt) – Haydock 8.25
I would like to get more involved with a few more selections, but the quality of racing today is ridiculously poor for a Friday, so I'm not going to get too involved.
I'm going back in on a horse I've previously stuck up on the Lucky 15 thread, and that is Best Adventure. This horse was a winner at Newmarket a couple of weeks ago, winning at odds of 7/2 under Shane Foley. He has gone up 7lbs for the win, which is probably fair on the look of it, and I think there is more to come from this son of Frankel, especially now he is going up in trip again.
Shane Foley is the retained jockey for the owner, but I wouldn't read too much into him not being here today, as he is riding one for the owner in Ireland, and also has a full book of rides, so him not being here doesn't mean this horse has no chance. Oisin is on board, and that's not a bad replacement; some would say it's an upgrade, but he knows this horse, he has ridden him before, and I think Oisin will relish the challenge that this horse brings. He looks like a slow horse, and he does take a bit of pushing along, so having a strong jockey in the saddle is a must; that's why I think Oisin is the man for the job. He took a lifetime to get going last time out, but managed to see the race out and out-battled the runner-up.
The pedigree suggests this trip will suit, and Frankel has produced many soft ground horses, so the ground should be fine for him too.
The Outlaw 5/1 (1pt) – Carlisle 4.50
I'll give a chance to Ralph Beckett's sole runner at Carlisle with The Outlaw.
Ralph has a solid record when sending horses to Carlisle, so I think his horse deserves a chance, especially at the odds.
I don't know whether he'll handle the ground as he is a dual winner on the AW, and when we saw him on turf, he wasn't great. However, that was a while ago, and over shorter trips, so chances are that he is a much better horse now, and turf is perfectly fine for him. Ralph is a great trainer, and would know whether he is as good on the grass as the artificial surfaces, and coming to a track he has a 26% SR at, which suggests a big run is on the cards.
I don't think this is a particularly strong race, and The Outlaw is running off a mark of 74, but is 67 as Jack Dace takes off 7lbs, which puts this horse onto his last winning mark, where he won with ease. Jack is a young jockey, but seems to be getting a few rides for some big stables, and has racked up a fair few winners already.
The Outlaw was backed into 7/4F on his seasonal return, so they were expecting a solid run, but he did look in need of it, so with that run, he will be much fitter this time around.
GambleAware