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The second day of the St. Leger meeting at Doncaster is upon us and there’s no shortage of top-quality racing to get stuck into. From a betting point of view, I’m most interested in the penultimate race, a six-furlong handicap of the Class 4 variety.
| Fontwell - 14:30 |
Honneur D'ajonc |
11/2 |
Rare Change, for trainer Richard Hughes, catches the eye. For my money, there’s some juice in odds of 7/1, and here’s why:
Let’s start with the fact that Oisin Murphy’s ride finished a more than respectable fourth over this trip at Newbury (at this level) last time out. That race was far from dissimilar to this, with the colt getting involved at the death following a hold-up ride. Sure, he didn’t quite lay down a serious challenge, but with that under his belt, he easily could here, especially with first-time blinkers added.
It’s worth mentioning that the form of that Newbury contest has worked out well, with the winner going on to compete in a Listed contest since. The runner-up has won at this level, while the third has since finished third (of 17) in a red-hot Class 2 handicap at York. Positive signs indeed.
A repeat of his Goodwood second would see him bang there
Prior to that effort he finished third (of 16) in a much-hotter-than-this Class 2 race at Goodwood. The winner of that contest (Artagnan) goes in here, but I’d question whether that one can repeat those antics from a higher mark.
Not only does the mount of the nearly always impressive Oisin Murphy rank top of the pile here for career-best speed figures, but he’s the best horse in terms of last-time-out ratings too, which is not something to easily ignore.
It’s also interesting to report that Hughes and Murphy have a pleasing 21.05% strike rate when teaming up in the last 12 months. That stat alone makes odds of 7/1 (12.5% implied probability) look a little generous.
Sitting at the foot of the weights on what could be a potentially lenient mark, Richard Hughes’ runner is worthy of support all the time odds of 7/1 are available.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day running profit is -£30 (since switching to being published here rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
Good luck
Thank you.
Was it 7/1 at time you posted this coz 2/1 now and says since 4pm yesterday been a rule 4
Yes, at the time of publishing, just a few minutes after 8:00am, 7/1 was available in several places. Please see the link below which contains a screenshot from Oddschecker odds history, complete with times on the left, showing that until 8:23, odds of 7/1 (8.00 in decimal format) were available with at least one firm.
https://ibb.co/nC0zGND
There was a first rule 4 yesterday, though today’s prices, at the time of posting, had already taken that into account, leaving 7/1 absolutely available, as per the linked image above. A second rule 4 took place just after 9:00am, nearly one hour after this article was published.
Well use are all lucky Symbol Of Honour didnt win the 2.25 that’s for sure.
Terrible by favourite there???
?? – ?
Wrong thread AGAIN ?
Good to see the bullshit knows no bounds??