Not to be for Kingston Bresil yesterday, who might still be running as I write this? Such is the game when you’re trying to uncover something at a price. Time for Friday’s bet, and let’s hope it’s less of a no-show.
| Ayr - 16:10 | |
|---|---|
| Koukeo | |
| 8/1 | |
| Ayr - 16:10 |
Koukeo |
8/1 |
On Friday, I’m interested in a Jonjo O’Neill runner at Ayr. The race in question is the 16:10, a Class 4 handicap hurdle over two miles and four furlongs, and the horse I’ve got my eye on is Koukeo, who’ll run in the hands of Jonjo O’Neill Jr.
Very lightly raced, the five-year-old made his handicap debut last time out following a 53-day mini break, finishing sixth (of 15) over the minimum trip at Musselburgh. There was little wrong with that for an opening effort in handicaps, and with that under his belt, the unexposed youngster could easily take a step in the right direction, especially as his maiden/novice form suggests that he’ll appreciate this step up in distance.
Step up in trip could do the trick
Back in November of last year, as a novice, the gelding finished second over two miles and one furlong at Carlisle, doing his best work late on, running as if today’s extra emphasis on stamina would play to his strengths. The winner of that race has since gone on to score again and is now rated 120, which is clearly better than anything in here.
Following that Carlisle effort, O’Neill’s runner filled the runner-up spot at over two miles at Uttoxeter, again running as if further would suit, and again, he finished behind a promising type that has since gone on to impress by winning a Listed contest at Exeter. The horse that he beat (quite comfortably) into third on that occasion has since finished third in a race not dissimilar to this, which for my money, bodes well.
At the end of the day, this lightly raced type has shown some clear signs of life, while he’s shown that a race of this nature, over this sort of trip, is likely to be within his grasp before long. His novice form would also suggest that a handicap mark of 106 is workable too.
On all available evidence, considering that this race doesn’t appear to contain a tremendous amount of depth, odds of 8/1 look quite juicy and are well worth taking as far as I'm concerned.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day (after 98 Naps) has a running P/L of +£2.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
For those interested, here’s a monthly profit and loss breakdown (again based on a £10 level-stakes example):
September 2024 = +£34.00
October 2024 = +£6.00
November 2024 = +£15.00
December 2024 = +£50.00
2024 Overall = +105.00
January 2025 = -£120.00
February 2025 = +£20.00
