What has been a tricky month for the ‘Nap of the Day’ continued yesterday with Mackenburg never landing a blow before pulling up. Never great to get no sort of run for your money, so hopefully Friday brings with it a turnaround in fortunes.
| Doncaster - 14:38 |
Ah Whisht |
28/1 (each-way, five places) |
Friday’s bet goes at Doncaster, where ahead of the 14:38 contest, a Class 4 hurdle race over an extended three miles, the big-priced Ah Whisht ticks a few too many boxes for 28/1 to go down as anything other than generous. At 28/1, with five places on offer, I’m advising an each-way bet here.
Pulled up in a hotter race than this over fences last time out, the gelding hasn’t exactly fired in two starts so far this season, though I do think that there’s a good bit of recency bias here, making his price bigger than it probably should be.
Has the form to feature for in-form trainer on his return to hurdling
Let’s face it, before he fell late in the day when making his chase debut at Kempton back in November, he appeared to be more than holding his own against some decent animals, while it’s not as if this lightly-raced type is without form over the smaller obstacles.
Back in 2023, he sauntered clear over two miles, four furlongs in a decent novice hurdle, the runner up from which would now rate as the best animal in this contest. After that effort, he finished a close-up second at Plumpton, with the winner (and the third) going on to achieve ratings better than anything in today’s race.
Those novice efforts earned him a mark of 117, which admittedly, he hasn't lived up to, but now rated 105, I’d argue that he’s definitely well handicapped.
Trainer Tom Symonds has also been in decent form over the last couple of weeks, which is never a bad thing, while he has a very interesting each-way record with Benjamin Poste in the saddle over the last year, during which the pair have a win/place strike rate of 53.7%.
A point-to-point winner over three miles, this step back up in trip (over hurdles) looks as if it will suit, and if he can rediscover his novice form in first-time cheekpieces, then I really wouldn’t be surprised if he got more involved than the early odds suggest. At 28/1, with five places on offer, I’ve got an each-way bet that says he can do just that.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day (after 87 Naps) has a running P/L of +£5.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
For those interested, here’s a monthly profit and loss breakdown (again based on a £10 level-stakes example):
September 2024 = +£34.00
October 2024 = +£6.00
November 2024 = +£15.00
December 2024 = +£50.00
2024 Overall = +105.00
