My main thread selections over many of the recent weeks have been very underwhelming to say the least, but to come away with three runner-up finishes on Thursday was a kick in the nuts. This racing game is brutal, but I'm always optimistic heading into a new day, and I think there is some good value in today's Lucky 15 bet.
Rizzel's tips
Kuzco 9/2 – Doncaster 12.55
I can see why punters will want to back Salt Rock as he is 1/1 over fences and comes from a yard who does very well with similar horses, but I think his price is taking up far too much of the market and I'm not totally sold on his chances. Instead, I've gone for Kuzco who made a nice impression on his chasing debut at Market Rasen on Boxing Day when finishing second behind Denemethy.
The winner of the race on Boxing Day has since ran well in a better quality race off a higher mark and acquitted himself nicely. The third horse from Market Rasen would've gone much closer than he did if he hadn't made a mess of the landing two from home, but he has also run well since, finishing second in a Class 3 race, so the form looks solid. With that being Kuzco's first start over fences, there's improvement to come, but also over this type of trip which looks sure to suit. He was a fair few lengths off the pace last time out, and only looked like a potential winner in the final 50 yards when he was staying on powerfully and from that visual, today's trip and course should suit him.
Henry Brooke takes over the saddle from Alice Stevens from last time out, which is a positive as he is the main jockey for this stable, as is the horse's low riding weight in this contest, with the nearest horse conceding 9lbs.
Gwennie May Jem 10/3 – Doncaster 1.28
The size of this race is enough to put people off from having a bet, but a horse towards the bottom of the weights caught my eye and that is Gwennie May Jem.
Dan Skelton has done well for the owners of this horse and their other horses in the yard. Gewnnie May Boy is the star horse for them, progressing nicely last year and ended the season with a win in a Grade 3 at Haydock. This horse will not be on the same level as the horse just mentioned, but I think he can follow in the footsteps of Gwennie May Star who won on his second handicap start, which is what Gwennie May Jem will be running in today.
My selection ran a career-best after showing very little in her runs in novice/maiden hurdles and a bumper race. He was held up off the pace, then became outpaced before staying on at the finish at Uttoxeter over 2m. Similar to Kuzco, I believe the step up in trip and the course will be perfect for this horse as it is a galloping track with a very long straight which will play to the stamina that Gwennie May Jem has got based on how well he stayed on last time out.
Doyen Du Bar 4/1 – Sandown 2.25
This Class 3 race is a decent renewal and I think Doyen Du Bar will be slightly overlooked as he is trained by a lesser-known trainer from the North, but based on his last two wins, I think he has a fantastic chance to make it three wins in arow.
Pauline Robson does not send many horses to the South and likes to reserve her horses for the Northern tracks, so given she feels the need to send her runner to Sandown for this race shows the confidence in the yard that their horse is good enough to travel and win here. I think this horse has a great chance and this track will likely be something which will play to his strengths. It is a demanding track on a horse's jumping and stamina, but it does suit horses who run from the front and get into a nice rhythm, which is something that Doyen Du Bar has been doing in recent races. He wasn't great on his first two attempts over fences, but the last two have worked out nicely and the form looks strong.
On his first win over fences, he beat The Kalooki Kid who has since won a decent handicap in emphatic style.
Back Tomorrow 7/2 – Southwell 7.15
My last selection for the Lucky 15 comes in a Class 6 race at Southwell, but I have gone for a horse who is a dual winner at this track and arrives in great form.
Back Tomorrow comes to Southwell on the back of two wins at Wolverhampton and will be looking for the hat-trick with a 5lb penalty at a different track. He is 2/4 at Southwell so there are no worries with the surface or the course and I think he has a solid chance of winning this despite the higher mark as he did win at this course off a mark of 61 a couple of years ago, so the ability to win off this mark is there to be seen. He has not done great since being with Ewan Whillans, but in recent weeks he has found the winning formula and I think it's wise to follow a horse who is on a winning streak as there could be plenty more to come.
