To kickstart the Cheltenham 2025 Festival we have the Michael O'Sullivan Supreme Novices' Hurdle which is a Grade 1 run over an extended two miles on the old course.
Before touching on the actual race preview and the horses lining up, it's worth noting that this race is named after Michael O'Sullivan, who sadly lost his life in a horrendous fall at Thurles just over a month ago. Michael was one of the better up-and-coming jockeys coming out of Ireland and had already tasted success at the Cheltenham Festival in this specific race when winning for Barry Connell on Marine Nationale back in 2023.
It hits home when stuff like this happens, and we should all be extremely grateful to the jockeys who risk their lives on a daily basis to provide entertainment for us punters.
Recent history of the Michael O'Sullivan Supreme Novices' Hurdle
Over the last ten years, if you're not backing an Irish horse or a horse from the Nicky Henderson stable, you will have come away with just one winner, which was Summerville Boy from back in 2018.
Willie Mullins used to have a solid record in this race, winning it three times in a row from 2013 – 2015, but he hasn't managed to secure the same level of dominance in recent years with a win in 2019 and 2021.
Usually, the Supreme winner goes on to be better over longer distances, and that is due to the frenetic pace which is set due to the big field and the initial buzz of the first race of the festival, so having a horse with strong stamina is always a plus. Klassical Dream, Shishkin and Appreciate It are a few names who excelled when going up in trip over the last few years.
Keeping your selections close to single-figure odds has been the way to go. Labaik is the only exception to win this race at double-figure odds (25/1) in the last thirteen years, and Labaik managed to win this in 2017, so it's been a race for the obvious candidates.
Main Irish candidates
It's probably best to start with the odds-on favourite Kopek Des Bordes who hails from the Willie Mullins yard and gets Paul Townend doing the steering. It's not a surprise to see him at the price he is at as he is unbeaten as a racehorse, with one win in a bumper and two over hurdles. He has been mightily impressive from his starts over hurdles so far this season, and he managed to add a Grade 1 to his CV from the Dublin Racing Festival at the start of February, winning that race by 13L, recording an RPR of 155. Appreciate It, Vautour and Champagne Fever have all done the double of the DRF and Supreme for Willie Mullins since 2013, so it's blatantly obvious why the favourite is the price he is at, especially after such an impressive showing last time out.
Romeo Coolio is arguably one of the main threats to the favourite, but whether or not he is good enough to cause a small upset in the opening race, I'm not so sure. There has always been hype around this horse since his PTP win back in March 2023. He made a winning start in bumpers, before finishing second in last year's Champion Bumper at the Cheltenham Festival. This year he has won twice over hurdles, with a Grade 1 being his last run over Christmas, but he hasn't got an unblemished record, as he was beaten as a 1/2F at Fairyhouse in a Grade 2 at the start of December. If Kopek Des Bordes isn't as good as he looks, then Romeo Coolio could pick up the pieces, especially knowing that he has course form from the bumper race last year.
The dark horse in the race is definitely Salvator Mundi who is owned by Mrs J Donnelly, who also owns Sir Gino. This horse ran his first-ever race in France against Sir Gino and was only 1.75L behind that horse, who we all know now is a superstar. He has clearly had his problems since moving to Willie's stable as he made his stable debut in the Triumph last year at the Festival, being well-supported for weeks before, but didn't quite live up to how the whispers were telling you. He is 2/2 over hurdles this season, winning a Grade 2 on his latest run in January, but his jumping looks a big problem and he can be very keen. Patrick Mullins is in the saddle, which is enough to put me off from backing this horse, as even though he is good against the amateurs, he doesn't quite cut the mustard against the world's best.
A horse I've always thought would be a very good horse is William Munny for Barry Connell. This would be very fitting if Barry managed to land this race in the name of Michael O'Sullivan in the same colours of Marine Nationale who gave Michael his biggest day in racing. There is a lot of sentimental thoughts with this horse being in this race, but from what I saw from him last year in bumpers, I liked what I saw. He was impressive on his first two starts in bumpers, before getting beaten into third in a Grade 1 at Punchestown. This year, he has only won one race from three attempts over hurdles but did manage to romp home in a Listed race. If the ground was bottomless I'd say he'd be an each-way player, but with the dry weather for the last week, I think nature has gone against him.
British duo
The level of dominance from the Irish is proven by the fact that the first race of the Festival we have just two British-trained runners, who aren't going to be good enough from what we've seen so far. Tripoli Flyer definitely holds the better chance of the two and is on a role at the moment for Fergal O'Brien, arriving to Cheltenham with a hat-trick of wins under his belt. He managed to win a Grade 2 at Kempton a few weeks ago, and the form looks decent enough by beating Miami Magic into second place, who was previously a runner-up in a Grade 1, but that form line has taken a knock since, so it's hard to weigh up what Tripoli Flyer has actually beaten. He's definitely not a no-hoper, but a placed effort is probably all they can be expecting.
As for Tutti Quanti, he shouldn't be getting a mention at all as he is rated 125, but as we only have two runners from Britain, he can get a very brief mention. This horse sums up the lack of power that the Paul Nicholls yard has, he is 1/4 over hurdles and couldn't even win a Class 3 novice at Newbury, so his odds definitely reflect his chances of winning, which is zero.
Final judgement
Personally, this isn't a betting race as I do believe the favourite will win. You can argue he is decent value at just below EVS, but with plenty of racing to come over the week, I don't think it's wise to get too heavily invested and potentially blow a large portion of your betting back on a short-priced horse. At the end of the day, this is jumps racing and anything can happen, like we've seen with Annie Power and even more recently, Goshen.
GambleAware